The tense atmosphere at the Kosmos cinema in East Berlin shifted from anxiety to jubilation and back again as the preliminary results for the January 2025 federal election trickled in. The BSW party, founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, was nervously watching the numbers with supporters hoping for their favorite to breach the threshold. Initially reported at 4.7 percent, the BSW finally revealed slightly more promising projections standing at 5 percent on ZDF, with supporters erupting with joy. "Jawoll!" exclaimed one enthusiastic follower, as the cheers filled the room. Meanwhile, the significance of passing the five percent barrier lingered heavily; Wagenknecht had made clear leading up to the election, "Anyone not represented in the Bundestag is no longer relevant in German politics."
By around 6 PM, the mood had shifted again. Co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali could be seen with her eyes shut, as news of early results fell short of expectations. BSW was reported under the pivotal 5 percent mark. After brief trepidation, supporters rallied, driven by the hope from alternate predictions citing the party at the necessary threshold. This back-and-forth left many wondering if, against all odds, they would manage to emerge victorious. "We hope the evening ends like the mood right now!" Wagenknecht addressed her audience spiritedly, reaffirming their resolve even if it led to failure. "If it isn’t enough, yes it will be seen as failure, but it’s not the end for BSW!"
Initially, things looked favorable for BSW since its formation from the Left Party just over a year earlier. They garnered more than 10 percent at various regional elections, overtaking the FDP and the Left itself, even gaining positions as junior partners in coalitions across states like Brandenburg and Sachsen. Their quest for entry to federal parliament seemed attainable, raising spirits as they thrived on earlier successes. Yet things changed. Despite BSW's radical left positions and criticism of the government's migration policies, they failed to build on their earlier momentum, eventually seeing their polling numbers decline.
The party's liberal migration policy became less appealing amid rising competition surrounding the subject. Not to forget their previously friendly stance toward Russia during the Ukraine conflict, which no longer raised unique flags as other political parties adopted similar viewpoints. The 2025 election day hung heavy for BSW, which, after all the excitement of the earlier campaign trail, now faced stark numbers hovering around the five percent hurdle. At the end of the night, the party was halted at 4.972 percent, missing the Bundestag seat by just under 13,000 votes as confirmed overall voting projections clarified their final counts.
Across the political spectrum, the election yielded staggering results. The Union under Friedrich Merz celebrated victory, amassing 28.6 percent of the votes, with the AfD trailing closely at 20.8 percent. Meanwhile, the SPD suffered significant losses, descending to mere 16.4 percent, marking its most abysmal outcome for almost 130 years. The many losing numbers indicated surprise gains for the Left Party at 8.8 percent and noticeable declines for both the Greens and liberal FDP, clocking only 4.3 percent and losing their foothold entirely.
Wagenknecht and Ali's spirited shouts of resilience would echo for days following the significant loss, but the stakes were high, particularly for Wagenknecht, as she had long tied her personal future to this outcome. Earlier she warned, "This election will decide my political future." But as challenging as it may be, it does not mean the end for BSW. The upcoming coalition discussions will perhaps indicate whether BSW's absence shifts the balance of power. With the absence of Sahra Wagenknecht’s party, possibilities lie solely with the Union and SPD.
Merz, the CDU leader, expressed urgency, emphasizing the need for quick discussions, noting Germany must operate effectively without long deliberations. "Germany needs swift governance, especially as we face rising issues around migration and national identity. Again, the vote has counted exceptionally, showcasing the highest turnout since reunification, with around 82.5 percent. It will influence the structure of our future parliament, significantly as the reform cut back on the number of representatives. What’s more, without the BSW as part of our parliamentary fabric, the new government will likely lean heavily between Union and SPD—an outcome majorly reshaped by the election's unpleasant surprises."
With the dust settling on the election, much speculation swirls around whether Sahra Wagenknecht will remain at the forefront of German politics or if BSW's narrative will lean to history. No matter the outcome, the question of how the political balance may shift now without their voice echoes strongly—Is this merely the beginning or the end of Wagenknecht’s political ambition, or will BSW forge on from here? Time will tell.