Brazil's unemployment rate has reached historic lows, dropping to 6.1% for the quarter ending November 2024, according to the latest data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). This figure marks the lowest unemployment rate recorded since the beginning of the historical series in 2012, representing a 0.5 percentage point decline from the previous quarter when the rate was 6.6%. This latest release, made public on December 27, 2024, reveals not only the improvement in the unemployment figure but also record-high employment levels across the country.
The data indicates a significant reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year, where the unemployment rate stood at 7.5%. Currently, the total number of unemployed individuals is estimated at 6.8 million people, showcasing a decrease of 510,000 individuals from the previous quarter—equivalent to a drop of 7%—and down 1.4 million from the 8.2 million unemployed recorded during the same period last year, illustrating a remarkable 17.5% annual decrease.
Examined closely, the employment figures tell a compelling story. The total population currently employed has surged to 103.9 million, marking a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter and up 3.4% from last year—a net addition of approximately 3.4 million jobs since November 2023. The employment-to-population ratio has risen to 58.8%, the highest ever documented, reflecting strong labor market dynamics.
The distribution of employment is also notable: the private sector saw workforce numbers peak at 53.5 million employees, with 39.1 million of those holding formal work contracts, also hitting record highs. Conversely, the number of informal workers is reported at around 40.3 million or 38.7% of the employed population—it remains one of the challenges for the overall economic health of the nation.
Despite the overall positive trends, some adverse patterns emerged, particularly within the agricultural sector. The latest figures indicate a 2% drop—accounting for about 164,000 job losses—in employment within agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and aquaculture. Such reductions highlight seasonal factors and potential challenges brought on by adverse weather conditions, which have significantly impacted this sector.
This unemployment report has not escaped political attention. Former President Jair Bolsonaro has publicly criticized the IBGE's unemployment figures, labeling them as misleading. He asserted on his social media channels and live broadcasts, "the unemployment rate is a lie from IBGE." Bolsonaro's contention stems from what he claims is the inaccurate classification of individuals who are not actively seeking employment. He argued, "for IBGE, those who do not search for jobs are counted among the employed," thereby inflaming the discourse around the methodologies used to measure unemployment statistics.
The methodology employed by IBGE for calculating unemployment is established through its Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad). Unemployment is defined as individuals who actively sought work but could not find employment during the reference period. Those who are not actively searching for jobs are categorized as outside the workforce and do not factor among the unemployed statistics. This approach aligns with recommendations from the International Labor Organization and has been consistently applied since 2012, including during Bolsonaro's tenure as president.
Also noteworthy is the reality of informal employment. The figures reveal many informal workers, including those who operate independently yet engage with programs such as the unemployment insurance without being officially counted as employed, thereby complicifying the employment picture. For many Brazilians, including those who draw from social programs, interpretation of employment status will vary widely.
Interestingly, the recent surge of job creation, amounting to roughly 2.24 million formal jobs established during the year, suggests optimism for Brazil's economic future. Notably, the commerce sector has driven job growth with around 94,572 new formal jobs, supported by the services sector which also recorded gains with approximately 67,717 positions. On the contrary, the industrial and agricultural sectors displayed decline, with net losses of jobs—mostly attributed to market forces and seasonal employment challenges.
The average real wage for new hires was reported at R$2,152.89. This figure, representing slight variations from preceding months, indicates how average wages are gradually being affected by both economic conditions and labor market adjustments throughout Brazil.
Looking forward, the latest unemployment figures and employment statistics reflect determined efforts and challenges within various sectors of Brazil's economy. With significant strides made toward lowering unemployment, the sustainability of such achievements will depend on continued investments and strategies to combat informal employment and sector-specific issues, particularly within agriculture.
Overall, the reduced unemployment figures reflect promising potential for economic stability and growth. They also highlight the importance of maintaining transparency and accuracy in data reporting to fully comprehend Brazil's labor market dynamics moving forward.
