The Brazilian clothing sector faces stagnation this Mother's Day, which falls on May 11, 2025, due to inflation and unseasonably warm weather. Despite being a favorite for gift-giving, clothing sales are expected to grow only 0.8% in volume compared to May 2024, with an estimated 539.2 million pieces to be sold, according to the market intelligence consultancy Iemi.
The retail performance for Mother's Day has been erratic since the pandemic. In the past five years, sales have fluctuated significantly: a 2% increase in 2024, a 17.8% decrease in 2023, a 10.3% increase in 2022, a staggering 159.7% increase in 2021, and a 58.7% decrease in 2020. In terms of revenue, a 4.3% increase is projected for May 2025 compared to the same month last year, totaling R$ 26.4 billion.
Consumer purchasing behavior is also changing. With rising prices, shoppers are buying fewer items but spending more per unit. The inflation rate for clothing has surpassed the general average. According to the IPCA (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo), the price increase for women’s clothing surged from 0.55% to 1.45% between March and April, while the overall index fell from 0.56% to 0.43%.
High interest rates are another factor affecting consumer spending. The basic interest rate, Selic, rose to 14.75% per year this week, the highest level since 2006. This makes installment payments, which are common in fashion retail, more expensive. Households are also feeling the squeeze from rising costs for food and services, making them more cautious about their spending, even as many plan to buy gifts for Mother's Day.
Weather plays a significant role in retail dynamics. This year, the climate is influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, leading to warmer temperatures that can dampen sales. Marcelo Villin Prado, director of Iemi, noted that, "If it’s cold, the sales flow for Mother's Day increases significantly, and the displays feature more expensive cold-weather items. If it’s autumn-like weather, spending will be lower, and sales volume will hover around the projected 0.8% growth."
These climatic fluctuations and extreme weather events have made it challenging for manufacturers to plan seasonal collections. Edmundo Lima, executive director of Abvtex (Brazilian Textile Retail Association), explained that brands must adjust their production cycles to avoid excess inventory or a shortage of suitable products for current weather conditions. "The unpredictability of the climate forces brands to rethink their production cycles to avoid excess stock or a lack of appropriate products," Lima said.
Despite the challenges in the clothing sector, Mother's Day is expected to mobilize around 133 million consumers in 2025, according to a survey by Instituto Locomotiva in partnership with online survey company QuestionPro. The survey revealed that eight out of ten Brazilians plan to buy gifts for the occasion.
Cosmetics and clothing are tied as the top choices for gifts, each cited by 47% of consumers. O Boticário, a major player in the cosmetics market, is optimistic, forecasting an 18% increase in sales for Mother's Day, which represents 25% of their seasonal sales, second only to Christmas. The company's strategy includes multi-channel distribution, gift kits, and emotionally connected marketing campaigns.
Chocolates come in second as a popular gift choice, mentioned by 39% of respondents, followed by shoes (29%), flowers (28%), breakfast baskets and personalized foods (23%), electronics (16%), relaxation and self-care services (13%), and books (7%).
Giuliana Flores, the country's largest florist, anticipates a 15% increase in total sales, with an average ticket price of R$ 215 for flowers, which are expected to comprise 70% of total sales, including chocolates, stuffed animals, and books. Mother's Day is the most significant event in the first quarter for the company.
Overall, Mother's Day sales are projected to generate R$ 14.37 billion this week, according to the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services, and Tourism). This figure accounts for various sectors, including clothing, footwear, cosmetics, household goods, electronics, furniture, jewelry, and food products like chocolate. Compared to last year's sales, retail movement is expected to increase by 1.9%, a figure considered modest by the CNC, largely due to the high-interest rates.
In contrast to the clothing sector's struggles, other categories such as cosmetics and flowers are thriving. The diversity of gift options reflects the broad appeal of Mother's Day across different social classes, creating opportunities for entrepreneurs from various backgrounds. The importance of this day is not just in the economic impact but also in the emotional connections it fosters among families.
As Mother's Day approaches, many families will celebrate with flowers, hugs, and heartfelt messages, while others may experience the silence of absence and the pain of loss. Blenda Oliveira, a psychologist, explains that these feelings are intensified during Mother's Day. "This happens because the date evokes an ideal of motherhood and the relationship between mother and child, which often does not exist in practice. Thus, the pain is greater as the date rekindles this ideal and generates comparisons," Oliveira stated.
Oliveira suggests that those dealing with loss should avoid triggers, such as social media posts about mothers and children. Instead, she encourages individuals to remember or relive cherished moments, like visiting a favorite restaurant or preparing a beloved dish. "The first years after a loss are usually the most painful as there is a deconstruction of the role, the processing of the feeling of loss, and the constant attempt to balance what could have been with what really was," she noted.
Ultimately, Mother's Day serves as a poignant reminder of the love and sacrifices mothers make and the diverse ways people choose to honor them, whether through gifts, memories, or simply spending time together. As the day approaches, it remains a significant occasion for both celebration and reflection.
