On September 11, 2025, the global coffee market found itself at the center of a swirling storm of weather forecasts, shifting currencies, and tightening inventories, all conspiring to send prices on a rollercoaster ride. According to Barchart, the day saw December arabica coffee contracts closing down by 0.80 points, a 0.21% drop, while November ICE robusta coffee climbed by 44 points, or 0.98%. This split performance underscored the complex and sometimes contradictory forces shaping the world’s favorite morning brew.
Much of the recent volatility has revolved around Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. For weeks, a stubborn lack of rain in Brazil’s key arabica-growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, had driven prices higher. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received no rain in the week ending September 6, a critical period as coffee trees approach their flowering stage. This dryness had traders and growers on edge, with many fearing a poor crop could tighten global supplies even further.
But just as worries mounted, the weather forecast shifted. Climatempo, a Brazilian meteorological service, announced that rainfall in Minas Gerais was expected to intensify in the following week. The news sent arabica prices tumbling from their four-month high, reached just two days prior. As Barchart noted, “Arabica coffee gave up early gains and turned lower Thursday after Climatempo said rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region is expected to intensify next week.”
Meanwhile, robusta coffee took a different path. Prices for this variety, favored for its higher caffeine content and use in instant coffee, surged to a one-week high. The reasons? A combination of tight inventories and global production woes. ICE-monitored robusta inventories fell to a two-week low of 6,563 lots on September 11, just above the seven-week low seen at the end of August. Arabica inventories were also under pressure, dropping to a 16-month low of 669,991 bags, according to Barchart.
Currency movements added another twist. The Brazilian real rallied to a 14-month high against the U.S. dollar on the same day. A stronger real typically discourages Brazilian coffee producers from exporting, as they receive fewer reais for the same number of dollars. This dynamic can tighten global supplies and support higher prices. As Barchart explained, “Strength in the Brazilian real is bullish for coffee prices as the real (^USDBRL) on Thursday rallied to a 14-month high against the dollar.”
But the supply story doesn’t end with Brazil. The country’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, delivered sobering news on September 4, cutting its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, and lowering its total coffee production forecast by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags. These revisions, coming on the heels of a May forecast, reflect the lingering impact of adverse weather and other challenges facing Brazilian growers.
Exports have also slowed considerably. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that July unroasted coffee exports fell by 20.4% year-over-year to 161,000 metric tons. The exporter group Cecafe echoed this trend, noting that Brazil’s green coffee exports in July dropped by 28% compared to the previous year, with arabica exports down 21% and robusta exports plunging by 49%. Cecafe also highlighted that shipments from January through July fell by 21% to 22.2 million bags.
Harvest progress, however, has been brisk. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative, the country’s largest, reported that 97% of its members’ harvest was complete as of September 5. Safras & Mercado, another market observer, noted that the overall 2025/26 coffee harvest in Brazil was 99% finished by August 20, with 100% of robusta and 98% of arabica harvested. This rapid pace may ease some immediate supply pressures but does little to offset the longer-term impact of lower yields and reduced exports.
Elsewhere, Vietnam, the world’s top robusta producer, has faced its own set of challenges. Drought slashed the country’s 2023/24 coffee crop by 20% year-over-year to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest harvest in four years. Vietnam’s 2024 coffee exports fell by 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. Yet, in a surprising twist, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported that exports for January to August 2025 were up 7.8% year-over-year, reaching 1.141 million metric tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, however, remains cautious, having reduced its 2024/25 production estimate to 26.5 million bags, down from a December forecast of 28 million bags.
Globally, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) painted a picture of tightening supplies. On September 3, the ICO reported that global July coffee exports fell by 1.6% year-over-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for October through July slipped by 0.3% to 115.615 million bags. These figures, while modest in percentage terms, highlight the persistent supply constraints facing the industry.
Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) offered a more optimistic outlook. On June 25, the FAS projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 would rise by 2.5% year-over-year to a record 178.68 million bags. This growth, however, is expected to be uneven: arabica production is forecast to decrease by 1.7% to 97.022 million bags, while robusta output is set to jump by 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. Brazil’s 2025/26 production is forecast to increase by 0.5% to 65 million bags, and Vietnam’s by 6.9% to a four-year high of 31 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to climb by 4.9% to 22.819 million bags.
Yet, not everyone shares this optimism. Volcafe, a major coffee trader, projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags, wider than the 5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25. If these forecasts hold, it would mark the fifth consecutive year of arabica deficits—a trend that could keep upward pressure on prices and unsettle markets for months to come.
Adding to the complexity, American buyers are reportedly voiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee beans due to recently imposed 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from Brazil. Since about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil, this move is expected to tighten U.S. supplies even further and could ripple through the global market.
As the world’s coffee drinkers await the next cup, producers, traders, and consumers alike are left to ponder: will the rains in Brazil arrive in time, will inventories recover, and will the world’s favorite caffeine fix remain affordable? Only time—and perhaps the next weather forecast—will tell. For now, the coffee market remains a study in contrasts: abundant in headlines, but increasingly tight on beans.
