Illegal border crossings across the U.S.-Mexico border are projected to hit their lowest levels under the Biden administration, according to internal reports viewed by CBS News. This news surfaces even as Donald Trump, the president-elect, prepares to take office once again, emphasizing his plans to restore strict immigration enforcement. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data indicates apprehensions of undocumented migrants are on track to fall below 50,000 this November, marking the first time since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic where such low figures have been recorded.
Reports suggest the U.S. Border Patrol is currently averaging about 1,550 apprehensions per day. This downward trend occurs against the backdrop of widespread concerns over rising illegal crossings anticipated following Trump's victory earlier this month. Trump, known for prioritizing strong border security, has pledged to implement rigorous measures, including mass deportations, starting on his first day back in office. Yet, these concerns seem unfounded as the data reflects declining crossing numbers since Election Day.
Should these trends continue, the estimates show illegal entries would substantially drop below the previous low observed under Biden's watch, which stood at around 54,000 apprehensions this past September. To contextualize, illegal crossings previously soared under both administrations, with Biden's peak reaching 250,000 apprehensions as recently as December 2023, and Trump's highest tally being 133,000 back in May 2019.
Several factors appear to contribute to this significant reduction. Experts attribute part of the dip to concerted efforts from the Mexican government aimed at curbing the flow of migrants heading toward the U.S. This, combined with the Biden administration's new asylum restrictions introduced mid-2024, which limit the number of individuals released to apply for asylum, plays a pivotal role. These measures together have effectively reduced the number of asylum seekers who can present themselves at the border.
Reflecting on the situation, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas commented, "Through tough measures at our border, newly-built capabilities to remove people more quickly, the construction of lawful pathways... we have driven border encounters below their 2019 level, made the border more secure than it was then, and upheld our standing as a country of refuge for those who qualify under the law." His statement reinforces the current administration's strategy to maintain order and legality at the southern border.
Interestingly, Trump’s vocal focus on stringent border security and mass deportations might backfire considering he may take charge of a border that's, relatively speaking, under control. Can you picture the irony of inheriting low crossing numbers as Trump reassesses his policies? Many Americans support rigorous immigration policies, yet the numbers suggest Biden's administration has achieved more than previously perceived.
Despite Trump’s plans to ramp up deportations, the feasibility of his proposals remains under scrutiny. Current statistics reveal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) possesses only about 6,000 officers and around 41,000 detention beds, insufficient resources to execute Trump’s ambitious deportation agenda. An estimated 11.7 million undocumented immigrants are currently living within U.S. borders, stressing the need for extensive manpower should deportation plans come to fruition.
Trump has even suggested military involvement for large-scale deportations, tapping the resources of the Department of Defense. But the legality and logistics of this strategy face considerable obstacles. Notably, many states led by Democrats have signaled resistance, indicating they would not permit local law enforcement to assist federal agents with deportations.
Naureen Shah, deputy director of government affairs at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), stated, "He doesn’t own our states. And our states will be the frontline defense of our civil liberties and our civil rights.”
California, often considered a sanctuary for immigrants, is particularly poised to strongly oppose these moves. California Attorney General Rob Bonta detailed, “We are ready to file. We have been thinking about and preparing and readying ourselves for the possibility of this moment for months.”
Legal experts note the military's employment for deporting undocumented immigrants stands on shaky ground. The ACLU plans to initiate legal challenges against Trump’s policies. They caution against overreach and assert the need to uphold civil rights. Lee Gelernt, ACLU attorney, emphasized the plan’s illegality, predicting challenges would be swiftly drafted.
On top of logistical challenges, executing Trump’s plans would likely require Congressional approval for funding expansions within agencies meant to enforce immigration laws. This need arises from the current backlog of about 3 million pending immigration cases clogging courts across the country, reported by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Even with Republican dominance across both houses of Congress, uncertainty looms over whether lawmakers would endorse financing such extensive plans. Experts project the cost of mass deportation could reach approximately $315 billion, with $88 billion cut from the U.S. GDP if such large-scale deportations go through.
During this complex backdrop, the impending transition of power indicates significant changes may occur, especially concerning immigration policy. Trump may discover he inherits not just the debates surrounding immigration but also the challenges of upholding promises made to his supporters, all set against the reality of existing statistics showing effectively managed border security.
Trump's camp continues to feel the pressure of expectation, as he pledges to dismantle Biden's protections allowing certain migrants legal access. There's tangible tension building with the approaching January inauguration, where he will confront countless political challenges, questioning whether the prospect of renewal through strict immigrations will align with public sentiment.
Democrats remain vigilantly prepared to contest Trump's planned measures. For many, this moment presents not just the revival of Trump’s policies but also the growing need to address immigration through more compassionate, systematic means. The insights drawn from the current data reflect shifts both sides must navigate as the country gears up for what is destined to be another contentious chapter of policy debates.
Overall, as apprehensions plummet to levels not seen during non-pandemic times, both Trump's vision and Biden's strategy will undergo scrutiny. Their outcomes will echo throughout political networks and resonate with the narratives shaping national conversation around immigration.
