John Bolton, the former national security adviser, has voiced stark warnings about the possibility of heightened international crises during Donald Trump's expected second term as the President of the United States. Bolton, who served under Trump for 17 months, harshly criticized Trump's knowledge of foreign policy, his strategic approach, and his unpredictable decision-making style.
Speaking to The Guardian, Bolton stated, "The risk of an international crisis ... is much more likely in a second Trump term." He elaborated on his concerns, indicating Trump’s pattern of decision-making appears more impulsive and driven by personal relationships than by coherent strategy, expressing significant unease about the repercussions for global stability.
Bolton made it clear how Trump's approach during his first term left the world feeling more precarious, arguing, "The world is more dangerous than when he was president before. The only real crisis we had was Covid, which is a long-term crisis and not against a specific foreign power but against a pandemic." This statement sheds light on his assessment of Trump’s tenure, emphasizing the lack of focus on geopolitical threats.
Bolton characterized Trump's decision-making process as “an archipelago of dots,” where connections between decisions are often unclear, and dismissed the president-elect’s claims during the recent presidential campaign, calling them, "typical Trump: it’s all braggadocio." Trump had suggested he could resolve current conflicts quickly, including those arising out of the Ukraine and Gaza crises. Bolton described Trump's claims as overly simplistic and detached from reality.
Another critique centered on Trump’s relationship with foreign leaders, particularly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bolton pointed out, “I don’t know what Putin thinks his relationship is with Trump but he believes he knows how to play Trump, that's an easy mark.” He underscored the importance of recognizing how international interactions are framed and understood by leaders, proclaiming, "If you put everything on the basis of personal relations and you don’t understand how the person you’re talking about on the other side views you, that's a real lack of situational awareness."
Bolton’s views hinge significantly on Trump’s inability to focus on coherent decision-making. "Given Trump’s inability to focus on coherent decision making, I’m very worried about how this might look," he added, troublingly foreshadowing potential crises born from unpredictability and poor strategic planning.
Throughout his statements, Bolton noted his surprise at Trump’s lack of engagement with foreign policy learning materials, asserting, "He doesn’t know much about foreign policy. He’s not a big reader." This comment alludes to Bolton's expectation, going back to the beginning of Trump’s presidency, when he hoped the gravity of the presidency would induce more serious consideration of national security matters. Yet, Bolton lamented, "By the time I got there, a lot of patterns of behavior had already been set," illustrating his frustrations with Trump’s operational style, which he found lacking the necessary intellectual discipline to handle pressing national and international issues.
The former national security adviser does acknowledge Trump's commendable decisions during his first term but emphasizes the lack of coherence among them, stating, "He doesn’t have a philosophy, doesn’t do policy as we understand it, he doesn’t have a national security strategy." This speaks to the broader concern of what Trump’s foreign policy will look like if he resumes the presidency without significant changes to his approach.
Despite his criticism, Bolton did find areas of support for Trump's recent staff picks, favorable to Senator Marco Rubio being nominated for Secretary of State and Congressman Mike Waltz selected for national security adviser roles. Yet he expressed concern over the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, which he described as "really dangerous," marking the stark divides within Republican foreign policy spheres.
Overall, Bolton is adamant about his prediction of potential risks under Trump, stating, "We’re in the grips of Trump for four more years and a lot of damage could take place during this period." He believes Trump’s brash style and tendency to forge personal relationships could spell disaster, both for America and its standing on the world stage.
Reflecting on his time alongside Trump, Bolton expressed regret and realization about the president's nature and how early hopes for strategic competence dissipated. He believes the course should change to avoid crises reminiscent of those witnessed historically, indicating undeniable risks tied to Trump's future governance, which appears only likely to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
