Brazil’s Supreme Court is once again at the center of a political maelstrom as it begins the crucial verdict and sentencing phase in the coup trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The proceedings, which kicked off on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, in Brasilia, have drawn global attention and ignited fierce debate both within Brazil and abroad. With allegations that reach the highest levels of government and accusations of a plot to subvert democracy, the trial marks a pivotal moment in the country’s modern political history.
Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, now faces five criminal counts stemming from his alleged attempts to remain in power after his defeat to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the 2022 presidential election. According to Reuters and the Associated Press, the charges include participation in an armed criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish democracy, coup d’état, damage to government property, and damage to protected cultural assets. The prosecution asserts that Bolsonaro masterminded a plot to overturn the election results, culminating in the storming of Brazil’s Congress, presidential palace, and Supreme Court by thousands of his supporters on January 8, 2023—a scene eerily reminiscent of the U.S. Capitol riots two years earlier.
The five-justice panel presiding over the case is scheduled to deliver verdicts and sentences between September 2 and September 12, 2025. Justice Cristiano Zanin, a former lawyer for President Lula and now chairman of the panel, opened the proceedings at 9 a.m. local time. The panel also includes Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the rapporteur of the case and a figure Bolsonaro has frequently clashed with. Notably, none of the two Supreme Court justices appointed by Bolsonaro are part of this panel, a detail that has fueled claims of political bias among the former president’s allies.
The charges against Bolsonaro paint a dramatic picture. Prosecutors allege that he led an organized group intent on using violence to prevent the transfer of power. The prosecution’s case includes evidence such as an unsigned document proposing to invalidate the 2022 election and claims that Bolsonaro pushed his supporters to destroy government buildings. The maximum possible sentences for the charges are severe: up to 12 years for attempting a coup, eight years for leading an armed criminal organization, another eight years for attempting to abolish democracy violently, three years for violent damage to state assets (with damages estimated at 20 million Brazilian reais, or about $3.7 million), and three years for deterioration of listed heritage—including the destruction of a 17th-century clock and several works of art.
Bolsonaro, now 70, has denied any wrongdoing. According to Reuters, he acknowledged participating in meetings aimed at challenging the election outcome but insists he never sought to overthrow democracy. His defense team maintains his innocence on all counts, arguing that the trial is politically motivated. Bolsonaro himself is under house arrest in a high-end gated community in Brasilia, monitored by an ankle bracelet and under constant surveillance. Since July, he has been banned from contacting foreign officials, using social media, or approaching embassies, after investigators reportedly found a document suggesting he may have contemplated seeking asylum in Argentina—an allegation his lawyers vehemently deny.
It remains unclear whether Bolsonaro will attend the trial sessions. His legal team has stated that his attendance is uncertain, given the restrictions placed upon him. The list of defendants extends beyond the former president, including former aide-de-camp Mauro Cid (who has signed a plea bargain with prosecutors), as well as several former ministers and high-ranking officials from Bolsonaro’s administration.
The trial has not only captivated Brazil but has also reverberated internationally. U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal ally of Bolsonaro, has condemned the proceedings as a “witch hunt.” In a move that many see as retaliatory, Trump linked a new 50% tariff on Brazilian goods to Bolsonaro’s legal troubles, stoking nationalist sentiment among Brazilian leaders across the political spectrum—including President Lula himself. The international dimension adds yet another layer of complexity to an already fraught situation, with Brazil’s economic and diplomatic relations hanging in the balance.
As the trial unfolds, the process is carefully choreographed. After the opening statements and the reading of charges by Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet, each defendant’s lawyer is given time to present their case. The justices will then review any final motions before voting on the guilt or innocence of each defendant. A simple majority—three out of five votes—is sufficient for conviction. If convicted, each justice may recommend a sentence, and if there is disagreement, the average of the recommendations will determine the final term.
Bolsonaro’s fate, however, may not be sealed immediately. He and the other defendants retain the right to appeal to the full Supreme Court, which consists of six justices not involved in the current panel. Should the appeal be accepted, the full court will not retry the entire case but will instead address specific points of contention, such as conflicting rulings or sentence length. If the majority of the full court upholds a conviction, Bolsonaro would be subject to incarceration. However, as a former Army captain, he is entitled to special imprisonment—most likely in military or federal police facilities, rather than a standard prison.
The political stakes are enormous. Although the combined maximum sentence for Bolsonaro’s alleged crimes could exceed 40 years, Brazilian law caps prison terms at 40 years, and in practice, sentences are often reduced. Still, the implications for Bolsonaro’s future are profound. In 2023, Brazil’s federal electoral court disqualified him from running for public office until 2030 over abuses of political power during his last campaign. Despite this, Bolsonaro has made clear his intention to run for president again in 2026—a prospect that now hangs by the thinnest of threads.
The case has polarized Brazil’s already divided society. Supporters of Bolsonaro view the trial as an orchestrated attack on their leader and a threat to political pluralism. Critics, meanwhile, see it as a necessary reckoning with an attempt to subvert the democratic order. The trial’s outcome will undoubtedly shape Brazil’s political landscape for years to come, setting a precedent for how the country addresses challenges to its democracy.
As the world watches, the Supreme Court’s decision will not just determine the fate of one man, but could redefine the boundaries of political accountability in the world’s fourth-largest democracy. The days ahead promise to be tense, unpredictable, and, for many Brazilians, deeply consequential.
