Brazil’s political landscape was rocked on September 13, 2025, when former President Jair Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison by a Supreme Court panel for attempting to orchestrate a coup. Yet, even as this historic verdict reverberates through the country, the story is far from over. Bolsonaro, who was absent from the hearing due to house arrest and reported poor health, remains a polarizing and powerful figure whose influence is likely to shape Brazil’s future for years to come.
Bolsonaro’s lawyer explained that the former president was too unwell to attend the final hearings, a detail that has done little to diminish the fervor of his supporters or the intensity of the national debate. In fact, just days before the verdict, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro’s backers flooded the streets across Brazil during Independence Day celebrations on September 7, 2025, demonstrating their unwavering loyalty. According to The Associated Press, among the crowd was Rio de Janeiro businessman Luiz Niemeyer, who described Bolsonaro as a “hero” and insisted, “Ideals are not killed, ideals are not arrested. You can arrest Bolsonaro, you can kill Bolsonaro, but these ideals will not die.”
This sentiment is echoed by many, highlighting the deep divisions that define Brazilian society in the wake of Bolsonaro’s conviction. Recent polling paints a picture of a nation split nearly down the middle: a Datafolha survey from August 2025 found that 48% of Brazilians wanted Bolsonaro imprisoned, while 46% preferred he remain free. The survey, conducted in person with over 2,000 people across 130 municipalities, has a margin of error of two percentage points. Meanwhile, an AtlasIntel poll conducted from August 20 to 25, 2025, and surveying 6,238 voters, showed that in a hypothetical election with the same candidates as in 2022, Bolsonaro would receive 45.4% of the vote compared to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 44.6%. The margin of error for this online poll was just one percentage point.
These numbers underscore the ongoing polarization and demonstrate that, conviction or not, Bolsonaro’s political clout remains formidable. Anthropologist Isabela Kalil, coordinator of the Extreme Right Observatory in Minas Gerais, told The Associated Press, “Maybe we’ll see something relatively new in Brazilian politics: a public figure who is under house arrest, who cannot formally take part in politics because of a conviction and ineligibility, but who still influences the course of politics.” She added, “When people ask me if I think Bolsonaro is weakened, my answer is that it depends on perspective. If you consider that January 8 happened, that all of this happened, and yet he still has a base and continues to shape the direction of the far right and much of the right, I don’t see that as a sign of weakness.”
The January 8 incident referenced by Kalil was when Bolsonaro supporters stormed public buildings in Brasilia, an episode prosecutors viewed as part of his alleged plan to retain power after his electoral defeat. Despite the legal consequences, Bolsonaro’s stature among his base appears undiminished. Silas Malafaia, a prominent evangelical pastor and key ally, asserted, “No one is going to take Bolsonaro’s prominence away from him, whether he’s in prison or not. He’s the greatest right-wing leader in Latin America.”
Bolsonaro’s allies are not standing idly by. Some are actively pushing for an amnesty bill in Congress that would allow him to avoid serving time and potentially restore his political rights, which were stripped in a separate process that bars him from running for office until 2030. Senator Ciro Nogueira, a former chief of staff under Bolsonaro and leader of the Progressistas party, told The Associated Press, “We should push for his endgame to grant Bolsonaro amnesty and make him eligible to run as our candidate. Without him, we won’t win the election. He is the main leader, the guiding figure.”
Yet, even as efforts to secure Bolsonaro’s future continue, the Brazilian right is preparing for a world beyond his direct leadership. Nogueira and others have identified Sao Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Parana Governor Ratinho Junior as strong alternatives who could carry the torch of Bolsonarism into the 2026 presidential contest. Both governors have publicly supported Bolsonaro, joining rallies and defending his innocence. De Freitas, a former Bolsonaro minister and military officer, is widely seen as the right’s favorite for a presidential run. He has stated that, if elected, he would immediately grant amnesty to Bolsonaro. At the recent Independence Day demonstration in Sao Paulo, de Freitas criticized Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the coup case, declaring, “Nobody can stand the tyranny of a justice like Moraes anymore.” Following the verdict, de Freitas wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that Bolsonaro and the other officers convicted with him were “victims of an unfair sentence with disproportionate penalties,” adding, “Stay strong, President. We will remain by your side!”
However, internal conflicts threaten to complicate the right’s path forward. Private messages released by the Supreme Court in August revealed that Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who resides in the United States and has ties to the American MAGA movement, accused de Freitas of failing to defend his father while allegedly preparing his own presidential bid. De Freitas has declined to comment on these accusations, and while he has not formally declared his candidacy, the tension within Bolsonaro’s inner circle is palpable.
Observers suggest that the aftermath of Bolsonaro’s conviction marks the dawn of “Bolsonarism 2.0.” Sociologist Esther Solano of the Federal University of Sao Paulo, who has tracked Bolsonaro voters and evangelicals since 2017, told The Associated Press that her research indicates the movement is strong enough to survive its founder. “Bolsonarism is moving into a new phase: consolidation, fortification and a new ecosystem of leaders who will rise stronger from Bolsonaro’s downfall,” she said. New figures are stepping up, including de Freitas, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, lawmaker Nikolas Ferreira, and other evangelical leaders.
For now, the country remains deeply divided. As Brazil looks ahead to the 2026 elections, the battle for the soul of the nation appears set to intensify. Any opposition candidate hoping to challenge President Lula will need to secure the support of Bolsonaro’s influential base—a base that, despite legal setbacks and leadership uncertainty, shows no signs of fading quietly into the background.
The conviction of Jair Bolsonaro may have closed one chapter in Brazilian politics, but it has opened another, equally tumultuous one. Whether the movement he inspired will fracture or flourish in his absence is a question that only time—and the Brazilian people—can answer.
