With the Delhi Assembly elections held on February 5, 2025, all eyes are on the exit poll predictions as they suggest the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may be poised for a sweeping comeback after 27 years. Major polling agencies indicate the BJP could secure anywhere from 35 to 60 seats, potentially ending the current dominance of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has governed since 2013.
The majority mark for the 70-seat Delhi Assembly is set at 36, making this election critically important for both the AAP and BJP. According to exit polls, the AAP could see its seat count drop to between 32 and 37 seats, with the Congress party projected to remain at the edges with around 1 to 2 seats.
Dr. Pankaj Kumar, the BJP candidate from Vikaspuri, expressed optimism about forming the government, stating, "BJP is forming the government in Delhi. Kejriwal has ruined Delhi as there is a shortage of drinking water... The public is deeply distressed." With predictions showing the BJP gaining strength, party leaders are upbeat about reclaiming power.
Polling predictions have shown varied accuracy levels over the years, particularly since the emergence of the AAP. The 2013 elections saw significant misjudgments, where exit polls predicted BJP dominance but the AAP shocked many with its strong performance. By the 2015 and 2020 elections, exit polls began to improve, albeit still tending to underestimate AAP’s victories.
Current exit poll data reveals the BJP could potentially receive 39 to 44 seats, as indicated by Chanakya Strategies, aligning with the party's growing organizational strength and strategic campaigning. The highest projection of 51 to 60 seats for the BJP came from People's Pulse, hinting at widespread voter dissatisfaction with the AAP's governance.
The AAP has been vocal about its belief the exit polls do not reflect the true voter sentiment. AAP leader Sushil Gupta stated, "This is our fourth election, and every time exit polls did not show AAP making the govt..." He emphasized the party's commitment to the people of Delhi and their previous successes.
Current conditions suggest growing voter fatigue toward the AAP, spurred by corruption allegations affecting several party leaders. Around 52,554 first-time voters aged 18-19 were added to the electoral rolls—a group citing education, safety, and cleanliness as primary concerns.
Competing against the BJP's strong messaging, the AAP attempted to reconnect with voters through grassroots campaigns. Reena Gupta, the AAP’s spokesperson, highlighted the party’s historical underrepresentation in exit polls, asserting, "You look at any exit poll—whether it’s 2013, 2015, or 2020—the AAP was always shown getting smaller numbers. But it got greater numbers than these projections."
The Congress, which has struggled to regain footing, is also expecting lackluster results, with their predictions not favoring them either. If the exit polls hold true, it could mark the end of Congress's long-time hold over Delhi, pushing them aside completely with expectations of winning possibly only one seat.
Virendra Sachdeva, head of Delhi’s BJP unit, conveyed confidence, stating, "Our victory will be more spectacular than what exit polls have shown...They chose to shed off the corruption... of Mr. Kejriwal’s government." He believes the upcoming results will be indicative of people's shift toward BJP which promises development and change.
AAP's strategy aimed at engaging the Muslim voter base was part of broader efforts to hold onto their support, yet the rise of Congress and other parties contesting heavily for those votes could complicate matters. The party has fielded five Muslim candidates, jostling for retention of this demographic which has historically backed them.
With all analysts and voter trends pointing toward possible upheaval for AAP, February 8 will prove to be pivotal. The same day, as results roll in, attention will also span the potential nationwide ramifications for the BJP and any shifting alliances among voters across various demographics.
Exit polls may not always hit the nail on the head, and the political atmosphere leading up to election results is rife with uncertainties. While polls indicate possible outcomes, what remains is to see how the aspirations and realities of the Delhi electorate will manifest when the official results are announced.