Bitcoin (BTC) price surged over the Easter weekend, jumping 9% and crossing the $91,000 threshold on April 22, 2025. This strong performance diverged sharply from the stock market’s lukewarm rebound and mirrored gold’s bullish behavior, which briefly touched a new all-time high of $3,500. While the BTC rally and its growing decoupling from equities are noteworthy, it's the derivatives market that offers an even more bullish signal.
According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin open interest (OI) soared by 17%, reaching a 2-month high at $68.3 million. OI measures the total capital invested in BTC derivatives, and such an uptick shows a growing bullish sentiment among traders. The market is currently in contango — a situation where futures prices (notably CME Bitcoin futures) are higher than the spot price. This typically occurs because investors anticipate rising prices and take advantage of leverage tools offered by exchanges, allowing them to gain greater exposure through futures than they could with direct spot purchases.
This raises two questions: Who is buying, and why? A key metric for understanding investor composition is the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. It measures the percentage price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro (BTC/USD) and Binance (BTC/USDT). Since Coinbase Pro caters predominantly to US-based institutional investors, while Binance has a broader global retail audience, this premium can indicate where the buying pressure is coming from.
While the first half of April showed strong retail dominance, April 21–22 saw institutional demand kick in, with the Coinbase premium rising to 0.16%, per CoinGlass. Michael Saylor’s strategy could be among those buyers. On April 21, Saylor announced the acquisition of 6,556 more BTC for approximately $555.8 million at an average price of ~$84,785 per coin. This brings MicroStrategy’s total holdings to an eye-watering 538,200 BTC, worth approximately $48.4 billion at current prices.
On a smaller scale, Japan-based Metaplanet also added 330 BTC to its treasury, pushing its total to 4,855 BTC, the company’s CEO announced on the same day. Meanwhile, investors who favor traditional financial instruments over direct Bitcoin holding have also begun to renew their interest. According to the CoinGlass data, on April 21, BTC ETFs recorded $381 million in inflows — a much-needed reversal after a prolonged period of heavy outflows. Since February, ETFs had suffered 33 days of net outflows versus just 21 days of inflows, with outflows strongly dominating in volume. The recent reversal suggests renewed confidence, particularly from TradFi-aligned investors.
Despite this positive momentum in the derivatives market, concerns linger about Bitcoin’s sustainability as a leading asset. On-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant reveals surprising weakness in the asset’s spot demand. According to recent data from the firm, Bitcoin spot demand has slowed down from the high pace of previous drops, decreasing by 146,000 Bitcoin in the last 30 days. This negative momentum has prevailed despite the ongoing market rally that saw the price of the leading cryptocurrency regain previous losses while settling above the $90,000 mark on April 22.
Bitcoin has led the market’s recent rally, with its price surging as high as $91,700 from the low of $87,031 experienced during the early hours of the day. Data from CoinMarketCap shows a 4.85% surge in its price and a notable 10.26% surge in trading volume. However, Bitcoin’s broad demand momentum, which monitors and tracks buying activity from new investors against existing holders, has continued to decline, sparking concerns among investors about Bitcoin’s future returns.
CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin’s demand momentum is now down by 642,000 BTC, the lowest level it has reached since October 2024. This suggests that investors are hesitating to acquire the token amid suspected early bear market trends. This metric has threatened the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bull run, as historical trends show that sustained appreciation in Bitcoin’s price is often supported by both rising demand and strong momentum.
Hence, the firm has warned that Bitcoin might not resume a sustainable rally if both the Bitcoin spot demand and the broad demand momentum do not stabilize and return to steady positive growth. According to CryptoQuant, the plummeting interest in Bitcoin’s recent demand is evident in the stable U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETF flows. This stability in Bitcoin ETF flows has been noticed since late March, where it has consistently moved between -5,000 and +3,000 BTC per day.
Although Bitcoin has shown strength in other metrics, the negative demand momentum suggests reduced interest in Bitcoin compared to previous bull cycles. As such, this has sparked concerns among existing holders and investors, as large investors still hope for further rallies to maximize gains.
Another factor influencing Bitcoin's trajectory is the current macroeconomic landscape. The US Dollar Index has been in freefall since February 2025, reaching lows last seen in 2022. The index, which tracks the dollar’s value against a basket of currencies, has been affected by rising tensions between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Their growing rift, centered on concerns about inflationary pressure from tariffs and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates, has cast a shadow over the US dollar.
Trump’s public pressure on Powell, and speculation that he might attempt to remove him or other Fed officials, is fueling anxiety over the Fed’s independence — a foundational pillar of the US financial system. The potential consequences of a falling dollar for the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is clear: Bitcoin stands poised to be a major beneficiary. A decentralized, censorship-resistant money governed solely by code, with a fixed supply schedule and no central authority to manipulate its issuance, Bitcoin’s narrative grows ever stronger as confidence in traditional monetary systems continues to erode.
In summary, while Bitcoin's recent surge offers a glimmer of hope for bullish investors, underlying concerns about demand sustainability and macroeconomic factors present a complex picture. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, traders and investors alike will be watching closely to see how these dynamics unfold.
