Bitcoin (BTC) has made headlines in early April 2025, surging above $87,000 as markets brace for President Donald Trump’s anticipated "Liberation Day" tariff speech. On April 2, the cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $87,300, marking a notable 2% increase within 24 hours, while traditional stock markets exhibited signs of weakness. This upward momentum comes as Bitcoin approaches a critical technical level, with the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sitting at $87,650, an important resistance point that traders are closely monitoring.
Analysts are divided on the potential impact of Trump’s tariff announcement, scheduled for 4 PM Eastern Time from the White House Rose Garden. Rekt Capital, a popular market analyst, has noted that Bitcoin is on the verge of a significant technical breakout. “Bitcoin is one Daily Candle Close above & retest of the Downtrend away from breaking out into a new technical uptrend,” Rekt Capital stated on social media. If Bitcoin can close above this level, it could signify a shift in market structure and the end of its recent consolidation phase.
In a broader context, Bitcoin has been experiencing an increase in dominance, suggesting that capital is flowing back into the cryptocurrency from altcoins. Some market observers anticipate that Bitcoin dominance could soon reach 71%, a new high for 2025. This shift may be partly attributed to growing mainstream adoption, including investment firm Fidelity’s introduction of a zero-fee retirement plan that allows Americans to invest in Bitcoin as part of their 401(k) portfolios. Additionally, crypto asset manager Grayscale has launched two new Bitcoin ETFs focused on systematic covered call writing, further expanding options for institutional investors.
Interestingly, the Trump family is also making headlines with their entry into Bitcoin mining. Reports from The Wall Street Journal indicate that Donald Trump’s sons, Don Jr. and Eric, are venturing into the Bitcoin mining space through their company American Data Centers, which will merge with American Bitcoin, a mining operation owned by Hut 8. This joint venture aims to create the world’s largest crypto mining operation and build a substantial Bitcoin reserve, signaling a vote of confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future.
Despite the positive price action, analysts remain cautious about the potential effects of the tariffs. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill warned in February that tariffs could have negative short-term effects on Bitcoin’s price. “Unlike gold, Bitcoin has a growth component, meaning it reacts to economic trends and liquidity cycles,” Butterfill explained. Historical data suggests that previous tariff announcements have typically led to downward price reactions for Bitcoin. Some analysts, including trading firm QCP Capital, are skeptical, noting that without a significant shift in macroeconomic conditions or a compelling catalyst, they do not expect a meaningful price reversal.
In a worst-case scenario, Swissblock asset management firm suggests that Bitcoin could retest the $76,000 level, which would represent an 11% drop from current prices. However, Pantera Capital believes that Bitcoin’s price is not fully reflecting recent positive developments and should be trading closer to $120,000 based on favorable catalysts, including a pro-Bitcoin president and positive legal outcomes for companies like Coinbase. Currently, Bitcoin is trading approximately 20% below its all-time high of just over $109,000, which was achieved earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price action has been influenced by trading dynamics on major exchanges. Data shows that spot traders on Binance and Coinbase held opposing positions throughout March, with Binance traders aggressively selling BTC while Coinbase exhibited significant spot bids around the $80,000 price level. This dynamic contributed to a sideways price action for most of March. However, as April began, spot traders collectively turned bullish, particularly on Coinbase, where spot bids increased as high as $7.98 million over just a few hours.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has successfully flipped an important resistance range between $84,000 and $85,000 into support. The cryptocurrency has also maintained a bullish position above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponentially moving averages (EMAs). Analysts suggest that while Bitcoin may struggle to break immediate external liquidity levels between $87,700 and $88,700, consolidation within this range could set the stage for a retest of $90,000 for the first time since March 7.
As the markets prepare for Trump’s tariff announcement, experts are weighing in on the potential implications. Some analysts argue that the tariffs, which are expected to be reciprocal and target countries including the European Union, China, India, and Japan, could lead to a recession. Goldman Sachs and PIMCO have raised their recession odds to 35%, citing concerns over slowing business investment and weakening consumer spending. However, some believe that Bitcoin’s perceived role as a hedge against traditional financial instability could bolster its value during economic downturns.
Investment manager Gadi Chait from Xapo emphasized the long-term potential of Bitcoin, stating, “These price swings may rattle speculators, but ultimately, this is just noise. Bitcoin has always been and always will be a long-term play; its value lies in its inherent sovereignty, decentralization, and finite nature, not short-term volatility.” This sentiment reflects a broader belief that Bitcoin could thrive even amid economic challenges.
In conclusion, as Bitcoin continues to navigate the complexities of market dynamics and external pressures, its trajectory remains uncertain yet promising. The upcoming tariff announcement and the evolving landscape of Bitcoin mining and investment could significantly shape its future. Investors and analysts alike are keeping a close watch on how these developments will unfold, with many hoping for a bullish turn in the coming weeks.
