Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering around $83,000, facing a complex array of mixed signals that could lead to a downward move toward $78,600. This comes in the wake of a short-lived rally that saw BTC surge to $88,500 earlier this week, but technical rejections and declining volume trends threaten the cryptocurrency's structure.
Market analysts have pointed to a failed breakout above a multi-month descending resistance line as a key factor contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. Carl Moon, a cryptocurrency analyst, emphasized this point on social media platform X, stating, "The trading volume continues to decline, which means this bearish target of $78,600 is still in play." His analysis indicates that if bulls lose control of the current trading range, a sharp selloff could follow.
Adding to the cautious outlook, Rekt Capital noted the significance of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting that a weekly close above $87,650 could shift momentum in favor of the bulls. However, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain prices above this critical trendline.
Despite a brief rally driven by spot demand, which saw Bitcoin touching $87,300, the cryptocurrency gained only 0.2% over the past week. This stagnation occurred alongside a 7% decline in the total cryptocurrency market cap, indicating that broader market conditions may be weighing heavily on Bitcoin's performance.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $88,500, fueled by a surge in spot volumes. Data from CoinGlass revealed that $145 million in total liquidations occurred, including $69.4 million from Bitcoin shorts. This short squeeze played a significant role in the price spike, but analysts cautioned that the move lacked follow-through strength.
Market dynamics shifted in early April as traders on Binance, who had aggressively sold BTC throughout March, began to align with Coinbase traders, who had maintained steady bids around $80,000. Data from Aggr.trade indicated that spot bids on Coinbase reached $7.98 million within hours, suggesting a renewed interest in Bitcoin.
However, this newfound alignment has not yet translated into a clean breakout. Currently, Bitcoin trades slightly below the $87,700–$88,700 resistance band formed by previous highs, creating a precarious situation for traders. Ali Martinez, another market analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin is now trading within a critical range of $86,900 to $84,800. He warned, "Whichever side breaks first on the hourly chart will likely define the next big move."
The upcoming White House press conference at 4 p.m. Eastern Time today could further shape the market's direction, especially with President Donald Trump addressing pending tariff rollouts. Investors are closely watching for any news that might impact market sentiment.
As Bitcoin grapples with these challenges, it remains at a pivotal juncture. While strong spot demand and short liquidations have fueled recent gains, the broader market structure appears fragile. Analysts suggest that declining volume, trendline resistance, and macroeconomic risks may limit upside momentum.
Looking at Internet Computer (ICP), the cryptocurrency is trading within a significant support range after what appears to be a prolonged corrective cycle. The 4-hour chart shows a decline from its December high of around $15.50, forming a five-wave ABCDE correction that reached a low of $0.50 on March 11, 2025.
The final wave of this correction terminated with a descending triangle, part of the corrective count from the March 2024 high of $21. Notably, the green support zone between $4.80 and $5.20 has acted as a historical base, previously serving as the launch point for an impulsive wave in July 2023.
On March 26, 2025, ICP experienced a breakout above the descending resistance, reaching a high of $6.36. However, this was followed by a downturn that reverted the price to its prior low, suggesting an attempt to form a double bottom before a potential new bullish phase.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tested the oversold region and recovered, but it again found itself close to the 30% mark, indicating that the broader trend remains bearish until proven otherwise. For a genuine trend reversal to be confirmed, ICP must reclaim the critical $7 level, which was a breakdown point earlier in the cycle.
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, ICP recently completed a five-wave decline to $4.80, followed by a sharp rebound to the $6.40 region. This rebound appears corrective and fits within an ABC structure rather than an impulsive five-wave advance, hinting that the current move is likely a relief rally rather than the start of a new bull leg.
The bounce is currently testing the 0.236 Fibonacci extension at $5.25, with resistance at $5.54 (0.5 retracement) serving as the next inflection point if the price pushes higher. Should the price fail to break above $5.54, the likely scenario would be a continuation to the downside, potentially targeting $4.57 (0.786) and more likely $4.31 (1.0 Fibonacci extension of the recent move).
Analysts caution that a lower low near $3.97 or even $3.60 cannot be ruled out unless ICP builds a sustained base above the $5.25–$5.50 range. The current market environment thus presents a high-stakes pivot for both Bitcoin and ICP, with traders keenly observing upcoming developments.
