Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its fourth halving cycle, traditionally a pivotal moment for price surges due to reduced supply. However, data and expert analysis suggest that this cycle presents a significant departure from past trends. As of March 18, 2025, Bitcoin's price, hovering around $80,000, indicates that historical patterns may not hold, with many industry analysts expressing concern over dropping demand and shifting economic conditions.
In previous halving phases, the reduction in Bitcoin's supply consistently fueled upwards price movements. Historical data indicated that should Bitcoin replicate its past performance, its price could potentially reach between $140,000 and $4,500,000. Yet, Ecoinometrics has projected that the lower boundary for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in this cycle should be around $250,000. This substantial deviation raises eyebrows about the effectiveness of the halving phenomenon in influencing price in the current climate.
The most troubling news, according to CryptoQuant's observations, is that Bitcoin’s apparent demand has nosedived to its lowest levels in over a year. This metric, which compares newly minted coins to those that have been inactive for over a year, highlights genuine market demand. Without fresh capital entering the market or renewed investor interest, experts fear Bitcoin’s price may struggle to gain significant momentum moving forward.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, has raised alarms about the end of Bitcoin’s bullish cycle. "Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action," he stated. Ju's insights echo a growing sentiment among analysts regarding the challenges facing Bitcoin in fulfilling its historical bullish trends.
Adding to the complexity, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments emphasized the role played by central banks and their monetary policies in shaping Bitcoin's dynamics this cycle. Unlike previous years, during which expansive monetary policies supported risk assets like Bitcoin, current trends indicate tightening policies that will hinder upward momentum. "This Bitcoin cycle we have largely been battling a flat monetary cycle, versus last cycle’s strong uptrend. That may be about to change..." Edwards mentioned, projecting a possible recovery in US liquidity, which might act as a catalyst for price resurgence.
While apprehensions loom over Bitcoin's immediate prospects, the landscape for cryptocurrencies as a whole appears to continue evolving. The CrossFi 2025 Crypto Market Research Survey paints a broader picture of user sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, conducting a comprehensive review of global adoption, which could have ramifications over the next years.
According to the CrossFi survey results, 80% of participants identified as female, while 20% identified as male, with most respondents hailing from Finland, Russia, and India. A majority of the respondents, aged between 28 and 43, earned a monthly income between $1,000 and $3,000. This demographic insight suggests a growing enthusiasm for cryptocurrency, often viewed as a potential source of income amidst a turbulent market.
Interestingly, the survey revealed that most users engage with cryptocurrencies once or twice weekly—an indicator of rising integration into daily financial routines. However, the challenges remain. Respondents cited exorbitantly high transaction fees and concerns about cybersecurity threats as the primary deterrents to increased adoption. They have expressed a desire for smoother integration of cryptocurrencies into their everyday lives, with expectations that these digital assets will soon be treated on par with fiat currencies.
As the market for cryptocurrencies evolves, the craving for security and minimal transaction fees has emerged as crucial factors in user satisfaction. Survey respondents voiced their needs for improved protection features as online finance continues to advance. There is a clear expectation that cryptocurrencies will not just coexist but will require to perform comparably with traditional fiat in daily transactions by 2025.
In conclusion, as Bitcoin navigates its fourth halving cycle, with indications of a potentially prolonged bear market, the broader conversation appears to be shifting toward the integration of cryptocurrency into mainstream financial systems. The reliance on macroeconomic conditions and institutional investor flows may determine Bitcoin's price more than the historical halving events in this new phase.
