Amid a swirl of technical signals and market jitters, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a tense holding pattern, with traders and analysts closely watching key levels that could dictate the cryptocurrency’s near-term direction. As of early June 2025, Bitcoin’s price action is defined by a complex interplay of bullish hopes and bearish caution, underscored by recent technical patterns and strategic analyses from market experts.
Bitcoin’s price has been oscillating within an ascending channel, with a recent attempt to break out of a falling wedge pattern. This breakout attempt, hovering around the $105,000 mark, is critical. According to technical setups analyzed on June 5, 2025, a successful close above $105,154 could open the door to further gains, targeting $106,828 and $107,504, key resistance points within the channel. However, failure to breach this resistance could invite a pullback toward support levels at $104,000, $103,818, or even as low as $103,000 to $102,800.
But the story is not so straightforward. CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole highlights a bearish head-and-shoulders (H&S) breakdown pattern that emerged on June 5, 2025. This pattern suggests that despite the recent bounce to nearly $104,000, Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet. The bounce is likely a classic retest of the neckline—the breakdown point of the H&S pattern—where early sellers take profits and fresh shorts enter, potentially pushing prices lower again.
Godbole points out that immediate support levels to watch are $100,000 and $95,500, with the latter derived from the height of the H&S pattern. For Bitcoin to shift back to a bullish trajectory and negate this bearish setup, it would need to break decisively above $107,000, a threshold that could refocus attention on record highs.
Adding a nuanced layer to this technical landscape, trader Pierre has been meticulously tracking Bitcoin’s price action through his H4 EMA/MA Compression Strategy. This approach centers on the interaction of three key moving averages on the four-hour timeframe: the 100-period moving average (MA), the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the 300-period MA. These moving averages act as dynamic support and resistance levels, and their behavior—whether they hold, break, or flip—provides critical signals about the trend’s direction.
Pierre’s strategy follows a cyclical pattern: periods of EMA/MA compression, followed by trending moves, gap fills, and then a return to compression. As of early June, Bitcoin experienced a "nice bounce" back into the compression zone after breaking above the H4 100 MA. For the bullish scenario to remain valid, the H4 100 MA must hold or flip to support, the H4 200 EMA must remain intact during pullbacks, and the H4 300 MA must act as a strong support level. If any of these levels are decisively broken and flip to resistance, the bullish case would be invalidated.
Following the breakout above the H4 100 MA, Pierre expects Bitcoin to fill the price gaps between approximately $109,500 and $110,500. Should the price reach these targets and the 200 EMA holds, a potential pullback to the 300 MA could occur before the next leg up. Pierre himself entered a long position near the H4 300 MA or 200 EMA during the recent bounce, taking partial profits as the price moved up but noting some limitations due to trading from a mobile device.
While Pierre’s approach is grounded in clear risk management—setting invalidation points and taking partial profits—the broader market remains cautious. The interplay between his EMA/MA compression framework and the bearish H&S pattern identified by Godbole creates a nuanced battleground for Bitcoin’s next moves.
This technical tug-of-war fits into a broader context of market dynamics. Bitcoin’s price action does not occur in isolation; it is influenced by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has been showing bearish tendencies. The DXY is trading inside a descending wedge, weakened by disappointing ADP employment data, with support around 98.55. Its momentum, as indicated by an RSI near 42, remains subdued. A weaker dollar often supports Bitcoin’s price, but the DXY’s current structure suggests continued pressure, adding an element of uncertainty.
In parallel, other markets such as Gold (XAU/USD) and EUR/USD currency pairs display their own technical narratives. Gold is consolidating above a rising trendline near $3,365, with bullish setups awaiting confirmation above $3,380 and $3,395, while strong support lies at $3,345 and $3,334. EUR/USD holds within an ascending channel, facing resistance at 1.1435, with potential to rise to 1.1456 and 1.1500 if it breaks out, but support levels at 1.1371, 1.1341, and a strong demand zone at 1.1315 remain critical for maintaining bullish momentum.
Returning to Bitcoin, the technical setups serve as a roadmap rather than a guarantee. As the June 7, 2025, analysis advises, “Technical setups are like roadmaps. They don’t guarantee the destination — but they help you avoid getting lost.” For traders navigating this volatile terrain, understanding the key levels, patterns, and risk management strategies is vital.
In the end, Bitcoin’s near-term fate hinges on whether it can break above critical resistance levels or if bearish patterns will prevail, dragging prices lower. The EMA/MA compression strategy offers a framework for identifying potential turning points, while the head-and-shoulders pattern warns of caution. Market participants would do well to watch these signals closely, as the next decisive moves could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks to come.
