Bitcoin (BTC) faced significant turbulence on March 14, 2025, breaking below a twelve-year long uptrend line against gold (XAU) according to analyst NorthStar. This breakout is worrying as it could signify the end of Bitcoin's bull market, which has persisted for over a decade. NorthStar warned, "If this breakdown continues for a week, or at worst a month, Bitcoin's 12-year bull market could end." But is the bull market really over for Bitcoin?
To understand the current market climate, it’s important to assess gold's performance alongside Bitcoin. On March 14, gold’s spot price surged past $3,000 per ounce for the first time, marking an all-time high with approximately 12.80% growth year-to-date. Conversely, Bitcoin, often dubbed 'digital gold,' recorded an 11% decline since the start of 2025, raising questions about its position as a safe-haven asset.
This stark difference in performance is also reflected within the investment community. U.S. spot gold ETFs experienced astonishing inflows of $64.8 billion, contributing to global gold ETF inflows reaching $231.8 billion, as reported by the World Gold Council. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs faced outflows of approximately $14.6 billion year-to-date, indicating growing investor skepticism about Bitcoin’s stability.
Analysts attribute this divergence to macroeconomic uncertainties triggered by President Trump’s stringent tariff policies, particularly fears surrounding the new tariffs imposed on China, Mexico, and Canada. These tariffs have escalated concerns about global economic slowdown, prompting investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Adding to gold's appeal, central banks from the U.S., China, and the U.K. have accelerated their purchases of gold, bolstering its price increases. On the same day of Bitcoin's downturn, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite Index remained relatively high at 0.76, indicating Bitcoin's continued association with risk-on asset movements.
Reflecting on previous market patterns, the current decline of the BTC/XAU ratio closely resembles movements observed between March 2021 and March 2022. During this earlier period, the BTC/XAU ratio indicated bearish divergence with simultaneous increase and decline signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggested the loss of upward momentum.
Following initially testing the support at the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (50-2W EMA), the BTC/XAU ratio suffered substantial declines, exacerbated by Bitcoin’s adjustment against the U.S. dollar by 68% during this timeframe. Currently, the BTC/XAU ratio is witnessing another retest of figure two-stage EMA, hinting the market may be repeating similar patterns seen previously.
Complicately, the RSI is once again reflecting bearish divergence, which highlights weakening momentum and heightens the potential for additional declines. Should the BTC/XAU ratio drop clearly below the 50-2W EMA (approximately 26), this would significantly amplify the risk of continuing declines, with investors bracing for Bitcoin’s price against the U.S. dollar potentially plunging to $65,000 at the 50-2W EMA—a staggering drop of about 40% from its peak of $110,000 recorded just last January.
Meanwhile, Nansen’s analysts, amid bearish trends, view the situation as merely "an adjustment within a bull market," framing the analysis cautiously. If the 50-2W EMA holds as support, Bitcoin may still return to bullish trends. But should the EMA line be breached, the market is positioned to fall sharply, plunging Bitcoin directly to bear market territory.
Adding to the intrigue, the recent 30-day snapshot shows gold ETFs raking in $100 billion, compared to Bitcoin ETFs, which have lost $50 billion, showcasing the clear investor shift. Charlie Morris, the founder of ByteTree and manager of the BOLD ETF—which includes both Bitcoin and gold—predicted this divergence will not last indefinitely, stating, "Funds flow will revert eventually, sooner or later."
Although gold's future is bolstered by geopolitical risks, tariff negotiations, and substantial ETF inflows, Bitcoin's meltdown raises concerns about its safety as investors look for reliable assets. Gold’s historic rally might have left Bitcoin behind for now, yet the trend could pivot back with the right catalysts.
Given the market’s reaction to economic and geopolitical signals, investors remain on high alert, weighing their options between legacy assets like gold and digital alternatives like Bitcoin. The conclusion is clear: how the market responds to these complex interrelations will shape the future of both assets as we progress through 2025.