Bitcoin is currently trading below the point of control after rejecting from a key dynamic resistance. The lower timeframe trend remains bearish, and its potential to influence higher timeframes is something traders should be mindful of moving forward. Following a rejection from the local high, Bitcoin (BTC) has returned to a key trading range, where price is now consolidating beneath the point of control (POC). This move aligns with the development of a swing failure pattern and the activation of a bearish harmonic structure, both of which contributed to the ongoing retracement.
While this pullback hasn’t triggered a high-timeframe breakdown yet, it reflects a short-term shift in sentiment and structure that warrants close attention. Key technical points include:
- Dynamic Resistance Remains Intact: Price has consistently failed to break through a key resistance trendline, maintaining a sequence of lower highs since the April 23rd high.
- Price Below Point of Control: Bitcoin is consolidating below the volume-weighted POC, and acceptance at these levels could open the door for further range rotation to the downside.
- Lower Timeframe Trend Still Bearish: The structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact on low timeframes, which could begin influencing higher-timeframe direction if not invalidated.
Bitcoin’s rejection from the April 23 local high occurred at the confluence of the POC and a bearish harmonic pattern. This triggered a pullback that has returned price to a well-defined range. The value area high has been lost during this move, and price is now consolidating just beneath the POC, an area of high volume and prior balance.
A defining characteristic of the current trend is the consistent formation of lower highs and lower lows on the lower timeframes. This structure remains unbroken and is guided by a dynamic resistance level that continues to cap upward momentum. Until this trend is invalidated, the short-term outlook remains cautious.
Behavior around the POC may offer important clues on what’s next. If price remains accepted below this level, the market could rotate lower within the range to test deeper support. Alternatively, reclaiming the POC and forming a higher low could mark the first step toward reestablishing bullish structure.
As Bitcoin consolidates below the POC and dynamic resistance holds, the short-term trend remains tilted to the downside. Continued rejection from overhead resistance may result in a deeper rotation within the range. However, a reclaim of the POC along with a higher low could indicate a momentum shift back toward the bulls. For now, traders should closely monitor how the lower-timeframe structure evolves, and whether it begins to influence broader market direction.
Meanwhile, Cardano (ADA) has been consolidating near a critical support zone following an impulsive advance and corrective decline. The charts reveal potential for a continued rally or a bearish reversal, hinging on the current wave structure and Fibonacci levels. This analysis interprets the 4-hour (higher time frame) and 1-hour (lower time frame) charts to evaluate ADA’s current trend and offer a balanced forecast.
ADA has exhibited a clear five-wave impulsive structure, peaking near $1.30 in December, followed by an extended WXY correction. The price retraced sharply to a low of $0.51 on April 7, likely concluding the correction count. A recovery began, leading to a high of $0.75 but fell back to the $0.62–$0.65 zone, a previously validated support area highlighted in green. This zone also coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the upward rally, suggesting significant confluence and historical demand.
ADA is hovering just above this support after completing a large corrective structure. The corrective waves exhibit a textbook descending wedge (Y-wave), which typically resolves to the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4H chart remains in neutral territory but is approaching the oversold zone, indicating potential for recovery.
From a structural standpoint, ADA seems to have completed a complex correction and could be transitioning into a new impulsive sequence. However, failure to maintain support above $0.655 could invalidate the bullish structure and send ADA toward $0.622 or even the 1.0 Fib retracement at $0.518.
The 1H chart presents a zoomed-in view of ADA’s current consolidation. After peaking around $0.76 (likely wave (iii)), the price corrected back into the 0.786 Fibonacci zone ($0.655), which aligns with the projected wave (iv) retracement. The current structure shows potential completion of a falling wedge, often a bullish reversal pattern.
If this level holds and bullish momentum increases, ADA will likely break upwards into wave (v), targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.762 or potentially the 0.5 retracement at $0.838. This would represent a continuation of the larger impulsive trend, validating the recent pullback as a healthy correction.
RSI on the 1H chart is flattening below 50, suggesting the downtrend is losing strength. A breakout above short-term resistance could confirm wave (v) initiation. If the breakout is strong, ADA may rally toward $0.76–$0.83 before a larger correction.
Conversely, a breakdown below $0.655 support would invalidate this bullish setup. ADA could then revisit $0.622 or slide deeper toward $0.518—a key support and 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the correction. This would mean that the recovery seen from April 7 is a corrective ABC to the upside and a continued correction, likely being its second wave X out from the WXYXZ count.
The bullish scenario is slightly more probable given the current wave structure, though volume confirmation is essential.