Ukraine is expected to soon start using American-made ATACMS missiles, marking a significant escalation in the conflict with Russia. President Joe Biden recently lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of the long-range weapon, allowing it to target military positions within Russia, particularly focusing on the western Kursk region.
This authorization, confirmed by three U.S. officials to ABC News, follows months of mounting pressure on the Biden administration to provide enhanced military support to Ukraine as it faces intensified assaults from Russian forces, now reportedly supported by troops from North Korea. The strategic move allows Ukraine to bolster its defense as it engages Moscow's troops, which have fortified positions near the border since August.
Ukrainian forces have already been utilizing both the cluster munition and unitary variants of the ATACMS since October 2023, but the previous restrictions had limited the use of these missiles to strike only inside occupied Ukrainian territory. The decision to modify these limitations is driven by the increasing need to disrupt Russian military operations more effectively.
So far, the White House has been hesitant to allow strikes within Russia due to fears of retaliation and concerns about the potential depletion of U.S. military resources. Prior to this authorization, the U.S. was focused on hesitating to provide weapons capable of hitting Russian soil, to avoid provoking an escalatory response from Moscow.
The approval of ATACMS—officially known as the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—is politically charged. With Biden approaching the completion of his presidential term and the looming presidential election, concerns are surfacing about the sustainability of U.S. support for Ukraine. President-elect Donald Trump’s skepticism toward continued aid raises the specter of diminished military assistance to Kyiv.
Military analysts suggest the impact of deploying ATACMS against specific Russian military targets might be limited. The Institute for the Study of War commented on the strategic reassessment, emphasizing the partial lifting of restrictions may not completely incapacitate Russian forces, as numerous military sites remain shielded from ATACMS range across various regions of Russia.
Retired Ukrainian military officers have offered their take, noting it could take out one to two thousand Russian personnel and around 150 heavy military units, thereby stalling Russia’s advance. Even with the tactical advantage this grants Ukraine, the overall strategic outcome will hinge on broader military resource availability and effectiveness.
On the diplomatic end, the approval of ATACMS might morph the dynamics of future negotiations. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed hopes for other European nations to adopt similar measures. Discussions continue around the potential for Ukraine to utilize British-French Storm Shadow missiles within Russia, as Kyiv pushes Germany for Taurus cruise missiles—another significant upgrade to its military repertoire.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the U.S. missile authorization by asserting it could ignite fresh tensions, framing the U.S. involvement as fueling the conflict. This aligns with President Vladimir Putin’s earlier remarks which warned of serious repercussions should NATO countries pursue military engagement within Russian territory.
Political dynamics at play are also being influenced by the approaching 2024 U.S. elections and Trump’s candidacy and potential return to power, where he has made it known he would seek to bring the conflict to negotiation swiftly. Some view this decision as affirming Ukraine's negotiating position; lawmakers argue it significantly changes the battlefield calculus.
Ukrainian military analyst Sergey Bratchuk reacted positively to the authorization but noted it may have come belatedly. This newfound capability, supporters argue, bolsters Ukraine’s hands as it continues to navigate the complicated terrain of warfare and diplomacy.
Recently, Biden had indicated this type of support was under continuous evaluation, reflecting shifting war fronts and new tactical realities on the ground.
The broader picture of this military aid reinforces the longstanding commitment and strategic alliances between the U.S. and Ukraine, with many calling for sustained support to fend off Russian aggression effectively. The authorization of ATACMS could serve not only as tactical leverage but also as leverage at the negotiating table, compelling Moscow to reassess its approach.
There is cautious optimism among Ukrainian officials, with some asserting the escalated military capability might finally coerce Putin to negotiate earnestly. "Putin is more likely to respond to strength," asserted Oleksandr Merezhkko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, emphasizing the need for immediate and significant military support to match and counter Russian actions.
Moscow’s military strategy is reportedly gearing up, increasing its long-range strikes and drone assaults, seemingly to prepare for any resumption of peace discussions, especially with increased scrutiny on U.S. involvement through Biden’s recent decisions.
With ATACMS now unlocked for use, the foundations for intensified military engagement have been laid, and it will be pivotal to see how this plays out on the ground and within the diplomatic spheres of influence moving forward. Analysts are tracking the developments with interest, noting how shifting U.S. electoral politics might either fortify or challenge the direction of the conflict.
