High-stakes diplomacy takes center stage as U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to kick off in Lima, Peru. This gathering marks what could be the last direct interaction between the two leaders, with expectations running high on both sides for productive discussions. Tensions between the two nations have reached unprecedented levels, and both leaders are under pressure to navigate sensitive topics ranging from trade to global security.
The meeting will be the first known interaction since Biden and Xi spoke on the phone back in April, showcasing the importance both sides attribute to direct conversations. A senior U.S. official shared insights, saying, “The conversations are not easy. That frankness has been important in managing the relationship.” This sentiment echoes the growing complexity of U.S.-China relations, which have been marred by disagreements over issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, North Korea, and Russia. U.S. officials expect discussions to encompass these significant flashpoints alongside pressing issues like the flow of fentanyl precursors from China to the U.S., which has fueled opioid addiction and overdose deaths.
Another layer complicates the relationship — the recent decisions from the Biden administration to impose restrictions on certain investments flowing to China. These rules target industries including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors, echoing broader concerns about U.S. technological superiority and national security. The new regulations are set to take effect next January, and stem from Biden's overarching strategy to counter perceived aggressive actions from China.
While both leaders demonstrated effort last November to restore dialogue after months of tension, concrete outcomes have remained elusive. Their earlier meetings had produced commendable cooperation on counter-narcotics, but larger issues like the Taiwan matter remain unresolved. "They're trying to keep tensions at bay," one official said, referring to their intentions to discuss contentious topics without inciting additional disputes.
Adding to the complex backdrop is the geopolitical chess game underway as Republican leaders, including President-elect Donald Trump, stand ready to adopt tougher stances on China. Trump has been vocal, pledging to impose blanket tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, positioning himself as staunchly nationalistic and committed to the seemingly unending trade war. This strategy brings uncertainty for Biden's administration as they analyze how to respond effectively during this pivotal meeting.
Xi's call to congratulate Trump last week after the midterm elections signaled both recognition of his potential adversary and acknowledgment of the importance of the U.S.-China relationship. Trump's announcement of key personnel appointments, filled with outspoken hawks on China, underlines the political changes drawing nearer and the potential for new conflicts.
The stakes could not be higher as these leaders prepare to meet — their talks symbolizing the potential for either escalation or de-escalation of long-standing tensions. This high-stakes summit sets the stage for Biden and Xi to chart the course of diplomacy for their respective nations at a time when cooperation could be more desirable than ever before, yet seems increasingly elusive. The outcome of these conversations is awaited on both sides of the Pacific, with the hope for strategies to move past adversities and build pathways of collaboration, if only for the moment.
