Belgium is on track for significant demographic changes as it approaches 2070, with projections indicating the population will rise sharply. According to the Federal Planning Bureau, the country is expected to grow by about 30,000 people each year, leading to a total population of approximately 12.9 million by 2070, up from 11.7 million recorded in 2024.
This population growth is unevenly distributed across different regions. The Bureau forecasts Flanders will see the highest increase, with its population projected to swell to around 8.0 million by 2070, up from 6.8 million four years earlier. Conversely, the populations of Wallonia and Brussels are expected to remain relatively stable, at about 3.7 million and 1.2 million, respectively.
A significant finding from the projections is the pivotal role of migration. It remains the principal driver behind Belgium’s demographic increase, with expectations it will be the sole contributor by the end of the 2030s as the natural balance (the difference between births and deaths) is projected to turn negative starting in 2038. This change indicates more deaths than births, which is likely to impact social services and economic planning.
With the aging of the population, Belgium faces another challenge: the growing dependency ratio. This ratio expresses the proportion of elderly individuals aged 67 and older compared to the working-age population, defined as those between 18 and 66 years old. Currently, there are 28 older individuals for every 100 working-age people, but this number will surge to 37 by 2040 and reach 43 by 2070, creating potential pressure on social support systems.
The Federal Planning Bureau’s projections offer not just numbers but also insight for future planning. They call attention to how migration and aging might influence economic policies, public services, and social support structures to accommodate this demographic shift.
Given the anticipated challenges stemming from these shifts—especially the sustainability of welfare and healthcare systems—the insights provided by these projections are invaluable for policymakers and planners. Preparing for such significant changes will require strategic foresight and proactive adjustments across various sectors.
Overall, Belgium stands on the cusp of notable demographic evolution by 2070. With careful planning, the country can navigate these challenges and leverage potential opportunities amid its growing and diversifying population.