On Sunday, March 23, 2025, Belgium will face Ukraine in a crucial match for the UEFA Nations League promotion/relegation playoffs at 16:45 (Brasilia time) at the Cegeka Arena in Genk. This match is significant as it can determine the fate of both teams in the league, with Belgium needing a two-goal victory to avoid relegation to League B after suffering a 3-1 defeat in the first leg played in Spain.
The stakes couldn't be higher for Belgium, who finished third in Group 2 of Liga A with only four points in six games. Coach Rudi Garcia knows that a loss or draw means relegation for one of the most talented generations in Belgian football, which boasts stars like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. "There’s no other way but to win now; we have the talent to do it," Lukaku stated with the confidence of his 85 international goals under his belt.
On the other hand, Ukraine arrives in Genk with momentum after their convincing first-leg victory. Under the guidance of coach Serhiy Rebrov, they secured a solid performance that showcased their depth and resilience. "We’re ready to fight for our place in League A with confidence after the first leg," Rebrov remarked, clearly bullish about his team's prospects.
The match will be broadcast live on Disney+ in Brazil, and the excitement is palpable, especially given the context. Belgium's lineup is likely to feature Thibaut Courtois, returning to goal after nearly two years. The expected formation includes Meunier, Mechele, Raskin, Debast, De Cuyper; Mokio, Trossard, De Bruyne; De Ketelaere and Lukaku up front. This offensive setup aims to compensate for their recent struggles, having scored just three goals in their last six matches, averaging a disappointing 0.5 goals per game.
Ukraine’s probable lineup looks equally formidable with Lunin in goal, supported by a defense comprising Mykthaylichenko, Matvienko, Zabarnyi, and Mykolenko. The midfield trio of Kalyuzhnyi, Zinchenko, and Shaparenko will be crucial in balancing attack and defense. Their attacking lineup will include Tsygankov, Sudakov, and Yaremchuk, all capable of exploiting any defensive lapses from the Belgians. This squad has averaged a goal per game over their last six encounters, emphasizing their offensive capabilities.
Undoubtedly, the psychological element will play a key role in the match. Belgium's recent form has been erratic, evidenced by their two wins, one draw, and two losses from their last five games. The pressure from the home fans at a likely full Cegeka Arena, which accommodates around 23,000 spectators, will add to the intensity of the match. The Belgian supporters are known for their passionate backing, which could serve as an important factor in motivating the players during challenging moments.
As for Ukraine, their resilience is bolstered by their recent victory over Belgium, having turned the game around with a stunning second-half performance. The emergence of young players alongside experienced names like Oleksandr Zinchenko could tip the match in their favor. With the ongoing conflict in their homeland, the team’s victories symbolize not just sporting success, but also hope and resistance.
Historically, this is the third encounter between the two teams, with Ukraine currently leading the head-to-head record, having drawn 0-0 in the Euro 2024 and won the latest clash 3-1.
The odds for the match present Belgium as slight favorites at around 1.60 for a simple victory, while an unlikely draw—favoring Ukraine—stands at 3.50. Analysts also suggest good value for over 2.5 goals in the match at 1.90, given the necessity for Belgium to attack from the outset.
Weather conditions might also have an impact, with forecasts predicting temperatures ranging from 5°C to 10°C with light rain possible in the afternoon. This could lead to a more physical game, which may favor the strategical approach of either side depending on how they adapt to the slippery conditions.
In wrapping up this high-stakes encounter, both teams have a clear objective. For Belgium, a win by two goals or more is essential to maintain their position in Liga A, while Ukraine only requires a draw to secure their promotion. The outcome will not only define the immediate future of both teams in the UEFA Nations League but could also have broader implications for their sporting identities in the coming years.
