Belarus has once again found itself embroiled in controversy as the country held its presidential election on January 26, 2025. The election results, which claim 86.82% support for Alexander Lukashenko, who has held power for 30 years, have raised eyebrows both at home and abroad. With approximately 9% going to the four candidates who many experts agree are merely figureheads approved by the regime, the legitimacy of this vote is under intense scrutiny.
Reports indicate widespread skepticism about the validity of the election results, described by some as fictitious. Experts suggest Lukashenko performed worse compared to previous elections, but still likely achieved less than 50% of the popular vote. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were barred from monitoring, leaving the election open to allegations of manipulation.
The lead-up to the election highlighted alarming human rights issues within the country. The political climate has become increasingly repressive since the protests against alleged election fraud in 2020. There remain significant obstacles for opposition candidates, who faced insurmountable barriers prior to the election. Independent election monitors or candidates from opposition parties had no opportunity to participate, casting doubt on the authenticity of any electoral process.
On the day of the vote, most polling stations reported minimal activity, contrasting sharply with the official claim of 85.7% voter turnout. Empty polling stations were widely reported, raising questions about the credibility of the participation figures. Lukashenko himself, as part of his campaign, has styled himself as the “guarantor of peace,” assuring the populace there would not be significant changes should he remain president.
The election, originally set for July 2025, was moved up during Lukashenko's visit to Russia last October. This shift has drawn criticism as it coincides with the coldest month of the year, likely suppressing public demonstrations and dissent against the regime. Many analysts believe this strategic timing was to minimize the chance of street protests, ensuring the administration could maintain the appearance of stability.
Lukashenko requires the election results for legitimacy after the backlash of 2020, where widespread protests were violently suppressed. Observers see the recent election as not only pivotal for Lukashenko but also reflective of Belarus's increasing alignment with Russia. Experts have indicated this election marks the current endpoint of the country’s transformation from liking more authoritarian governance to outright totalitarianism.
The political structure now seems aimed at solidifying Lukashenko's power, with reforms made over the past years assuredly setting the ground for what he calls “a generational change.” His government has taken measures to create state institutions filled with loyalists, ensuring any power transfer occurs safely within the existing political framework, without challenging his grip on the presidency.
The harsh realities for dissenters are palpable, with the regime employing strict laws to control civil life. Thousands of organizations labeled as extremist have faced severe penalties, growing numbers of dissidents have endured imprisonment, and the regime is increasingly wielding 'anti-terrorism' measures against any form of opposition.
Between January and November of 2024 alone, there were over 22,500 criminal cases related to alleged extremist actions. With the economy showing signs of strain and reports indicating increased police presence to quell any potential unrest, many Belarusians remain apprehensive about their future.
Currently, over 1,245 individuals are incarcerated under politically motivated convictions, enduring harrowing conditions reminiscent of stark authoritarian regimes. Meanwhile, the supposed liberalizing measures such as the pardoning of political prisoners introduce some contradictions, as 1,721 politically motivated verdicts were passed during the same year.
This election not only rekindles memories of the troubled elections of the past but also demonstrates the continuing plight of those clamoring for democracy within Belarus. International observers anticipate heightened tensions as political repression escalates, and calls for human rights reform become increasingly desperate.