Wendy’s iconic “Where’s the beef?” catchphrase from the 1980s is echoing through American kitchens once again, but this time, the answer is more elusive—and expensive—than ever. Ground chuck prices have soared 51% since 2020, hitting a two-decade high of $6.63 per pound, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just last month, prices jumped nearly 14%, as reported by WCCO, leaving consumers and industry insiders alike wondering what’s driving this beefy inflation and what it means for the dinner table.
The reasons for these historic highs are as tangled as a plate of spaghetti. Economists cited by WCCO point to a “perfect storm” of factors: severe droughts, surging demand, and a series of tariffs, most notably those implemented under President Donald Trump. These pressures have squeezed both supply and affordability, making beef a luxury item for many Americans. And it’s not just beef feeling the heat—grocery prices across the board are climbing, fueled by broader inflationary trends and policy choices from the highest levels of government.
According to NPR, the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size in 75 years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects beef production will fall 4% this year and another 2% next year. The culprit? A combination of climate-driven droughts, high land prices, and persistent financial uncertainty. Ranchers like Calli Williams of South Dakota are facing limited grass to feed their animals and rising land costs. "We can’t make the financial investments to increase production even though we’d like to cash in on these high beef prices," Williams explained to NPR. But ramping up cattle numbers isn’t as simple as flipping a switch—it takes years to raise a single cow, and current economic headwinds make that investment riskier than ever.
The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingers, too. Five years ago, prices were dramatically lower, but the pandemic upended the meat industry, shuttering processing plants and snarling supply chains. As the industry tried to recover, high inflation and interest rates continued to batter both business and household budgets. For a time, beef prices even dipped due to an oversupply, which ironically discouraged ranchers from growing their herds. Then came drought, which forced record-high cattle slaughtering in 2022, according to USDA data reported by NPR.
Trade policy has only added fuel to the fire. Brazilian beef, once a staple import, now faces a staggering 76% tariff, and the USDA has blocked livestock imports from Mexico over concerns about the screwworm pest. These moves have further tightened the supply of beef in the U.S. market. As Brady Blackett, a third-generation Angus cattle producer in Utah, told NPR, "There’s healthy competition for the cattle, and there’s not enough of them to fulfill the demand. And so it has driven prices to historic highs."
Consumers are feeling the squeeze. Research firm Circana found that as beef prices remain sky-high, Americans are starting to put less meat in their grocery carts. Some are cutting back entirely, seeking cheaper alternatives or simply going without. Fast food giants like McDonald’s have responded with new deals after previously hiking prices by 40%, according to Audacy. In one bizarre case, a would-be thief reportedly tried to smuggle beef out of a store by stuffing it down his pants—a sign of just how valuable red meat has become.
But beef isn’t the only grocery staple caught in the crosshairs of inflation. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, announced on April 2, 2025, have sent ripples through the entire food sector. According to a HuffPost analysis of federal statistics, annualized grocery inflation now sits at 3.1%, up from 1.8% during President Joe Biden’s last year in office. Electricity inflation is even more dramatic, running at 15.7%—more than four times the rate under Biden. Overall inflation has climbed to 3.1% annualized, compared to 2.8% in the previous administration’s final year.
Economists have been quick to point out that these trends were predictable. "This is what economists warned would happen," said Justin Wolfers, a professor at the University of Michigan, speaking to HuffPost. "Trump promised these prices would fall. While one could quibble about the rate at which these prices are rising, there’s no question that he hasn’t delivered." Despite these realities, President Trump has continued to claim—falsely, according to HuffPost—that his administration has "solved inflation." At a recent news conference in Great Britain, he declared, "We’ve already solved inflation. We’ve solved prices." Yet the numbers tell a different story.
One of the most extreme examples of tariff-induced inflation is coffee. Since Trump slapped a 50% import tax on Brazilian coffee—citing Brazil’s prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro—the price of coffee has shot up at a staggering 63% annualized rate. Jason Furman, a former Obama administration economist now at Harvard, told HuffPost, "Note that tariff rates basically doubled in August, so we’ll be seeing more of it." Tariffs don’t just hit finished goods; they also raise costs for U.S. manufacturers who rely on foreign raw materials and intermediary parts.
Trump’s campaign promises to bring down grocery and energy prices have not materialized. At a news conference in August 2024, he vowed, "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one." After winning the presidency, he told NBC News, "I won on groceries. Very simple word, groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that. We’re going to bring those prices way down." But as Wolfers bluntly put it, "The president hasn’t taken a single policy action that would lead one to expect lower grocery prices. Tariffs raise costs."
Energy prices have also defied Trump’s rosy predictions. While gasoline prices did fall—thanks mostly to OPEC’s decision to boost oil production—the cost of producing electricity has soared. Much of America’s power comes from natural gas, whose price has run 20% to 250% higher year-over-year since Trump took office. Tariffs on imported metals have made it more expensive for power companies to upgrade equipment and modernize the grid, further pushing up costs for consumers.
These economic pressures are starting to register with voters. A Fox News poll conducted in September 2025 found that just 32% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 67% disapprove. Republican pollster Sarah Longwell told HuffPost that high prices were the main motivator for so-called “double haters”—voters who disliked both Biden and Trump but hoped the latter would bring relief at the checkout line. "Ultimately, many of them voted for Trump because, despite what they saw as his many failings, they were hopeful he would make good on his promise to lower prices and that his ‘businessman’ background would be helpful in this regard," Longwell said.
With the U.S. cattle herd at a 75-year low, tariffs driving up import costs, and inflation eroding paychecks, American consumers are left with tough choices at the grocery store. As beef and other staples become more expensive and scarce, it’s clear that policy decisions, climate realities, and economic forces have all converged to create a new normal—one where the answer to “Where’s the beef?” is increasingly: out of reach.
