Abkhazia has witnessed significant political events this March as Badra Gunba emerged victorious in the presidential elections. According to reports from the election monitoring group ACONE Abkhazia, Gunba secured approximately 56.8% of the votes, leading against his rival Adgur Ardzinba who garnered 40.1%
The voting took place on March 1, 2025, with nearly 90,000 citizens participating, which indicates about 60% voter turnout. By 18:00 local time, the counting of ballots had progressed considerably, with results continually favoring Gunba. With 56,000 ballots counted, the expectations were high for Gunba's win to be confirmed mathematically as ballot counts reached 90% by the end of the voting day.
Gunba previously served as the acting president during the election campaign, having temporarily resigned from his position. Ardzinba, the former vice-premier and leader of the Abkhaz People’s Movement, was his main competitor. The electoral climate reflected both candidates' pro-Russian sentiments, which have been significant themes in the campaign.
Reports indicate the elections were marred by violence when armed individuals attacked polling stations. Eyewitness accounts revealed masked assailants stormed one location, resulting in broken voting urns and the intimidation of citizens. Thankfully, police managed to prevent the assailants from escaping completely, apprehending some and injuring others during the confrontation.
According to the head of the Central Election Commission Dmitry Marshan, the voter turnout was impressive, reaching more than 70%. This marked differently from the first round of elections, where Gunba had initially secured 46% of the votes, and Ardzinba had 37%.
After the final count, Gunba's win signifies the Abkhazian people's clear voice for stability and reform. Gunba expressed his intent to focus on improving healthcare access for citizens through agreements with Russia, indicating his administrative priorities moving forward. "Our people have made their choice, and we will work tirelessly to fulfill their expectations," he promised during his post-election address.
This election followed the October 2024 resignation of former president Aслан Бжания, which arose after widespread protests against his government’s investment agreements with Russia sparked public unrest. The legitimacy of the elections has been questioned by Tbilisi, which considers Abkhazia to be Georgian territory under illegal occupation. The region's independence has only been recognized by Russia and a few other nations since 2008, making the political scenario quite complex and layered.
Nonetheless, this electoral process is deemed significant not only for Abkhazia but also for the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Georgia. The historical conflict between the nations remains sensitive, and the election displays the enduring Russian influence over the local governance structures. Gunba's plans include ensuring tighter cooperation with Russia on various fronts. His campaign slogan revolved around the theme of strengthening ties for the people of Abkhazia, which he emphasized during his interactions with voters.
With the election results confirming his position, Gunba now bears the responsibility of addressing pressing economic and social issues facing the region. A significant challenge will be to balance the Russian influence with the local populace's wishes, ensuring governance protects the interests of Abkhazia's citizens.
The ensuing weeks are likely to show how Gunba, alongside his administration, will present solutions to the range of challenges and expectations expressed by the voters during the election campaign.
Experts now observe how the wider international community will respond to the legitimacy of these elections and the geopolitical ramifications of Gunba's presidency against the backdrop of existing tensions with Tbilisi.
Despite international concerns, the elections have strengthened political ties within Abkhazia, demonstrating the resilience and political engagement of its people during times of uncertainty. The geopolitical tensions continue as did the spirit of democracy expressed by the 90,000 voters who cast their ballots on this decisive day.