Azerbaijan is under the spotlight as it prepares to host the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), but the host's credentials raise eyebrows globally. With its entire economy tangled up with fossil fuels, the country paints itself as a player on the climate stage, leading to significant scrutiny and skepticism about its true intentions.
The state oil company, SOCAR, has been on quite the spending spree, signing 25 lucrative deals since Azerbaijan was announced as the host for COP29, totaling nearly $3 billion. This figure is almost three times the amount it secured over the previous year and surpasses the $7 billion worth of contracts seen back before the pandemic struck. This rapid escalation of agreements suggests SOCAR is capitalizing on the visibility and opportunity presented by the climate talks, raising pertinent questions about prioritizing fossil fuel investments over climate commitments.
This connection between climate discussions and fossil fuel expansion isn't unique to Azerbaijan. Earlier this year, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company sought oil and gas deals totaling $100 billion during COP28, showcasing how hosting climate talks often dovetails with opportunities for petrostates to solidify their energy portfolios.
At COP29, SOCAR is projected to play an influential role, poised to increase oil and gas production significantly. Fresh deals include the $468 million purchase of stakes in gas projects within the United Arab Emirates and selling shares of Caspian oil fields to Hungarian company MVM, amounting to $1.5 billion. This aggressive move places SOCAR as the second-highest producer of new oil and gas after Angola’s Sonangol, indicating Azerbaijan's ambition to cater to the European market’s rising demand for gas since the conflict involving Russia and Ukraine.
While Azerbaijan is set to gain economically from these deals, the UN and the International Energy Agency (IEA) provide stark warnings. Both organizations assert new fossil fuel projects clash with the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, particularly the aim to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The pledges made at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels reflect growing recognition of the dangers posed by continued reliance on oil, gas, and coal, pushing leaders to find genuine pathways to sustainable energy.
This creates a collision of interests at COP29. With Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev—a former SOCAR executive—declaring climate meetings won’t hinder the country's fossil fuel exploitation, the skepticism over Azerbaijan's genuine commitment to climate action deepens. Aliyev describes these fossil reserves as national assets, positioning his nation to continue thriving on its oil and gas wealth.
Historically, the choice of Azerbaijan as host for COP29 stemmed from complicated geopolitical maneuvers. With every other candidate blocked—primarily due to Russia’s veto power—Azerbaijan and Armenia emerged as unlikely contenders. Russia orchestrated the selection process, leading to Armenia lifting its objections against Azerbaijan's hosting bid. This political backdrop adds to the doubts surrounding the climate commitment of Azerbaijan, which continues to grapple with its complex historical conflicts, especially surrounding the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where the Azerbaijani government has been accused of human rights violations.
Criticism of the Azerbaijani regime is rampant, especially from human rights advocates. Azerbaijan has earned notoriety for its authoritarian governance, reflecting significant oppression and systemic human rights abuses. Many fear speaking out during COP29 due to possible repercussions from the government. The borders of Azerbaijan will remain closed during COP29, allowing only air travel, which exacerbates accessibility issues for attendees.
This combination of environmental degradation with authoritarian governance challenges the integrity of COP29's objectives, particularly as nations grapple with how to effectively address fossil fuel dependence. Advocates for climate action, like Patrick Galey from Global Witness, contend there's little room for polluters at COP’s discussions. He insists the focus must shift decisively toward eliminating fossil fuel dependency if we are to tackle the mounting climate crisis.
The dissonance extends across continents and contexts. With Azerbaijan's oil exports comprising 90% of its national income, its insistence on promoting climate dialogue feels remarkably dubious. Activists argue COP29, branded as the “Peace COP,” is set against the backdrop of Azerbaijan's military resurgence and aggressive territorial claims, leading to unsettling anxieties about how the event will play out.
Greta Thunberg, among other voices, emphasizes the hypocrisy of holding the climate summit under such circumstances. This critique echoes throughout the activism community, spotlighting deep-rooted issues surrounding how climate negotiations might actually perpetuate status quo power structuring rather than instigat sustainable shifts.
The pressing question for global attendees is whether Azerbaijan can genuinely champion meaningful climate policy shifts, or if COP29 will merely serve as another platform for validating its interests as one of the world’s leading oil producers. With the specter of geopolitical tensions and environmental degradation looming large, the future of COP29 could reflect broader struggles against climate apathy.
