Azerbaijan Airlines' flight J28243 tragically crashed on December 25, 2022, during its approach to Grozny, claiming the lives of at least 38 of the 67 individuals on board. Initial investigations indicate the plane may have been struck by debris from a Russian surface-to-air missile, which exploded approximately 440 kilometers away, near the conflict zone of Chechnya.
The Embraer E190 took off from Baku at 7:55 AM local time and attempted to land three times at Grozny before diverting to Aktau, Kazakhstan. The sequence of events leading up to the crash was chaotic, with reports of missile activity disrupting the aircraft's systems. Eyewitness accounts from survivors noted hearing explosions outside the plane shortly before its fatal descent.
Experts from western air safety agencies have preliminarily concluded the plane sustained significant damage to its hydraulic systems, which are critically important for aircraft control. The details of the crash are still being pieced together, but there are observations from analysts indicating the presence of puncture marks on the aircraft's fuselage consistent with high-velocity impacts.
According to Matt Borie, chief intelligence officer for Osprey Flight Solutions, "One of the surface-to-air missiles launched against the drones may have exploded at 'some dozens of meters' from the commercial flight." This explosion seems to have unleashed debris at such velocity and quantity it became sufficient to compromise the safety of the flight.
Onlookers reported the jet spent over 100 minutes grappling for control. Located near Makhachkala, the aircraft lost its GPS signal possibly due to military interference as Ukrainian drones were spotted nearby. Operational limitations increased as the crew navigated through deteriorated conditions, including fog and falling air pressure.
Three separate hydraulic systems are instrumental for the Embraer's tail control, and any damage to these lines could lead to catastrophic flight control issues. The concerns highlight the possibility of external malicious acts over technical failures, as the aircraft manufacturer has suggested such external influences may have contributed to the crash.
Videos taken from the scene of the crash revealed damage to the tail of the aircraft, lending credence to the theory of potential missile engagement. The nature of the impact critically diverted the flight's approach, leading to uncontrollable descent just three kilometers from the airport runway.
With the crash prompting immediate responses, Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended all flights serving the route from Baku to Grozny and Makhachkala pending investigations. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued advisories warning against operations within conflict zones due to military risks.
This incident occurs against the backdrop of the intensifying Ukraine-Russia conflict, as multiple missile attacks unfolded on the same day. U.S. President Joe Biden condemned the Christmas attacks on Ukraine, acknowledging the significant danger posed to civilian aircraft flying over contested territories.
The black box from the downed aircraft has been recovered and will provide audio and flight data to assist the investigation, as aviation safety experts hope to clarify the nature of the incident.
Overall, speculations of missile involvement have put additional pressure on both Russian and Azerbaijani authorities to disclose their findings. The outcomes may yet reflect on international air travel policies, particularly within and around regions affected by military engagements, thereby raising questions about the safety of civilian routes traversing potential conflict zones.
These findings will be monitored closely as preliminary assessments continue to evolve alongside the broader ramifications stemming from this tragic event.
