Azerbaijan Airlines is facing intense scrutiny following the crash of its Embraer 190 aircraft, which tragically went down on Wednesday near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. This devastating incident has prompted investigations and burgeoning theories surrounding its cause, with some experts alleging potential missile fire from Russian air defense.
The ill-fated flight was en route from Azerbaijan's capital, Baku, to the Russian city of Grozny when, for reasons still unclear, the aircraft was diverted to Aktau. Eyewitness accounts and cellphone footage show the plane making a steep descent before crashing about three kilometers from its intended destination. Survivors recount harrowing scenes as the aircraft was engulfed by flames upon impact.
The loss of life has touched many, leading Azerbaijan to declare Thursday as a national day of mourning. Flags flew at half-mast across the country, and citizens participated in moments of silence, paying tribute to those who perished.
Numerous theories about the crash's cause are surfacing, with some experts pointing to evidence of shrapnel on the wreckage, which suggests it could have been struck by missile fire from Russian defense systems attempting to thwart Ukrainian drone attacks. Jean-Paul Troadec, former director of France’s Bureau of Investigation and Analysis (BEA), commented on the wreckage's appearance, stating, "The traces seen on the plane suggest [it] is quite probable" it was shot down by missiles. Meanwhile, military analyst Yury Podolyaka echoed these sentiments, noting the similarity between the holes identified on the aircraft and damage caused by anti-aircraft missile systems.
Russian officials, including spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, have warned against making rash conclusions, emphasizing the need for conclusive evidence from the investigation. They caution against speculation, reflecting the tension surrounding the incident amid heightened military activity due to conflicts involving Ukraine.
Adding complexity to the narrative, Kazakhstan's aviation authority initially indicated the crash might have stemmed from the plane flying through a flock of birds, but this theory was later rescinded. Experts rejected this, citing the survivability of the aircraft following such impacts. The Kazakh authorities also highlighted the possibility of mechanical failure linked to the plane's sudden deviation from its flight path.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev provided insights, noting poor weather conditions could have necessitated the diversion to Aktau, but the specific cause remains open to investigation. Concurrently, Russian aviation authorities indicated the pilots opted for the alternate airport due to what was described as damage caused by bird strikes.
Suspicion mounts with coinciding reports of drone strikes against Grozny, where Russian defenses were activated. The unusual route and circumstances leading to the crash have also raised eyebrows. Flight tracking technology reported irregularities, noting significant GPS interference just before the aircraft ceased communication.
Those lost included 37 passengers from Azerbaijan, six from Kazakhstan, three from Kyrgyzstan, and 16 Russians. Rescuers were able to locate 29 survivors, who included three children. Of the survivors, fourteen were flown back to Azerbaijan, with nine recovering within Russia.
Mark Zee from OPSGroup, which specializes in aviation safety, weighed in on the situation, stating, "At high level we'd put the probability of it being a surface-to-air missile attack at being well within the 90-99% bracket." This notion supports the opinion of various aviation analysts who indicate the possibility of the plane being targeted amid regional hostilities.
Osprey Flight Solutions, another aviation security entity, underscored the incident as dishearteningly reflective of the risks posed to air travel amid modern conflicts. CEO Andrew Nicholson noted, "This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do. It is painful to know lives were lost.”
Although authorities strive to quell unfounded speculation, the evidence continues to add layers to the tragedy. The investigation is expected to take time as officials from Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan collaborate to unravel the details surrounding this fatal crash.
Overall, with calls for patience and thorough examination, the truth about what befell the Azerbaijan Airlines flight remains pending discovery. Until the investigation yields clear answers, the specter of uncertainty looms over the tragic crash, leaving families and nations grappling with loss and seeking clarity.
