With the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections recently concluded, exit polls have painted a sweeping picture favoring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Among the pollsters, Axis My India stands out for its predictions, forecasting the BJP will secure between 45 to 55 seats of the 70-member legislature. This projected victory would mark the end of the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) eleven-year rule.
According to Axis My India, under the leadership of Pradeep Gupta, the incumbent AAP, led by chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, is predicted to win only 15 to 25 seats, down significantly from their 62-seat triumph during the last election. Meanwhile, the Congress party, once dominant in the region, is expected to secure no more than one seat, reflecting its continuing decline.
The Axis My India exit poll highlights Arvind Kejriwal as the most favored choice for chief minister, with 33% of respondents supporting him. BJP's candidates Parvesh Verma and Manoj Tiwari trail significantly behind. Despite Kejriwal's personal popularity, the exit polls signify broader voter sentiments turning against the AAP, showcasing potential dissatisfaction with its governance.
Interestingly, amid this projected BJP resurgence, competing agencies have also stated similar outcomes. Two pollsters, WeePreside and Mind Brink, diverged by providing optimistic projections for the AAP, but the consensus among most others is clear: the BJP is likely to reclaim power.
Analysis from the Axis My India survey suggests the BJP could garner around 48% of the vote share, whereas the AAP is projected to secure 42%. This indicates not just a swing but quite a significant shift from the previous election, where AAP secured 54% and the BJP only 39%.
Delving more deeply, let’s examine the expected distribution of seats across various districts. The BJP is predicted to sweep New Delhi, winning 7 out of 10 seats there, with the AAP poised to capture the remaining 3. The North East Delhi district sees the BJP projected to take 6 seats against 4 for the AAP. South East Delhi is expected to end evenly, with both parties claiming 5 seats each.
While these predictions are compelling, electoral exit polls historically struggle with accuracy. Final results can diverge significantly from these anticipations. With the counting of votes slated for Saturday, February 8, all eyes are focused on the confirmation of these forecasts.
The previous elections held on February 5 saw about 60.10% voter turnout—close to the 62.59% turnout recorded during the 2020 assembly polls when the AAP dominated. It is common for political dynamics to fluctuate significantly between elections, and this reality is especially apparent as the BJP ramps up its campaign against the ruling AAP, alleging malpractices like money distribution and fake voting, aimed at undermining voter confidence.
Polls can act as both indicators and influencers, shaping electoral strategies; hence, these results prompt AAP to refute the predictions firmly, asserting they misalign with ground realities. The party's leadership emphasizes their belief the official results will contradict these forecasts.
For BJP, buoyed by favorable projections, confidence is palpable. Party officials express optimism about potentially surpassing even these predictions, hinting at aspirations for not just victory but overwhelming dominance. The agency's assertions point to significant momentum, particularly within areas like West Delhi and Chandni Chowk.
Despite these ambitious claims, the Congress seems relegated to irrelevance, as its continuous downslide persists. The Axis My India and other exit polls show it struggling to gain traction, with past polling showing Congress drawing blank over the last two assembly elections.
With polling practices historically established by organizations like the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in the 1960s, exit polls today occupy pivotal roles not only as indicators of potential outcomes but also as reflections of shifting voter sentiments.
February 8 will be definitive, presenting not just the question of seat distributions but also the future trajectories of these parties. Will the AAP’s decade-long governance succumb to the pressure of these forecasts? Or will there be surprises capable of altering the predicted narratives?
The outcome of this electoral contest could reshape both local governance and broader political strategies leading up to the general elections. It serves as both battleground and barometer, as Delhi's voters actively position themselves within the complex electoral frame.
The Axis My India predictions serve as both snapshots and insightful assessments of contemporary political dynamics, with ramifications extending beyond just the immediate results. Stakeholder engagement remains pivotal as parties recalibrate strategies in response to both voter feedback and post-election analyses.