The live cattle export sector in Australia is experiencing a significant resurgence in early 2025, with exports reaching their highest levels in four years. The numbers show an upward trend driven by a plentiful supply of cattle and prevailing prices that are meeting customer expectations. Despite these gains, the figures are still far below historical averages, yet the sector's outlook remains predominantly positive, especially following substantial rain events in Queensland.
In 2024, Australia exported a total of 766,000 head of cattle, marking a 13% increase from the previous year and the highest export level since 2021. Nearly three-quarters of these exports were sent to Indonesia, whose intake of Australian cattle surged by an impressive 45% last year alone. The month of December displayed remarkable activity, with the largest monthly total exports recorded since October 2020, of which 91,000 head were primarily dispatched to Indonesia.
As 2025 began, export numbers soared, demonstrating a continued upward trend. The figures for February indicated that exports more than doubled compared to February 2024, although they remain approximately 4% below the five-year average. Interestingly, Indonesia remained the dominant market for live cattle, while a noteworthy shipment to Mexico marked their first importation of Australian cattle since 2016, specifically more than 3,000 dairy heifers.
However, the demand patterns for various cattle types have shifted significantly. The decrease in demand from both China and Vietnam led to a drastic 34% reduction in total breeder exports from Australia in 2024. Conversely, feeder cattle exports rose by 25%, while slaughter cattle experienced a 13% increase. Despite these fluctuations, total cattle exports to China fell by 33% last year, dropping to their lowest levels since at least 2012, with a corresponding market share decrease to just 7%—the weakest since 2015.
This trend continues to manifest in early 2025, with export numbers to China recorded at nearly 70% below the five-year average. Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has projected a further increase in cattle exports, estimating a lift to 803,000 head this year and projecting a 25% rise above 2024's figures by 2027. The key to this growth lies predominantly with Indonesia, which is addressing supply gaps in its domestic herd caused by disease challenges, coupled with a reduction in competitive Indian buffalo meat permits. These factors indicate that Indonesia will increasingly rely on Australia to fill its demand for feeder and slaughter cattle.
Complementing this outlook are the projections from ABARES, predicting that cattle numbers for the 2024-25 year will increase by 23%, reaching 817,000 head, with an additional growth of 10% projected for the following year (2025-26). The demand dynamics indicate strong market potential, resulting in feeder export steers from the Northern Territory (NT) currently quoted at $3.45, only marginally below the national price indicator.
While China and Vietnam are unlikely to return to their previous demand levels, continued interest from Indonesia is crucial, alongside burgeoning markets such as the Philippines, where exports are noted to be up by 30% this year. The strength of the live cattle export sector is reinforced by solid order activity, as agents report brisk demand and quick fulfillment of orders.
In a more localized perspective, the Queensland live export trade plays a vital role in managing the cattle supply chain, especially when processing issues arise in southern and central regions. The recent weeks have seen heavy export orders filled out of Cloncurry, alleviating pressures from a backlog of cattle caused by meatworks closures due to Cyclone Alfred.
Recently, a significant cattle export order emerged in the market, reporting prices at 320 cents per kilogram live weight for feeders and 300 cents per kilogram for medium steers. These figures are competitive when contrasted with local cattle exports from Darwin, which range at 350 cents per kilogram for feeders and 330 cents per kilogram for medium steers.
Moreover, shipments out of Darwin are poised to ramp up in April, though exporters anticipate not regaining full access to the NT supply base until late April. As heavy rain impacts movement, it can delay shipments until May. Nonetheless, sales have resumed at Charters Towers, albeit with limited quality cattle availability.
In southern Queensland, meatworks continue to experience high inquiry rates, revealing concerns about supply once the colder months arrive. The local agents reported that southern bullocks have seen a slight increase in price, while southern processors are actively engaging in purchasing cows, particularly at Dalby and Roma. However, these works are currently booked out until May, and the bids for cows are around 570 cents per kilogram with those for bullocks at 630 cents per kilogram, significantly lower than southern price quotes.
On a regional basis, effective rain is being credited for a positive shift in cattle prices across southeastern Australia. The rain, noted last week, particularly impacted northern and central NSW regions allowing an influx of cattle into the yards. The better conditions have enabled feeder cattle prices to hold steady in NSW, with black cattle quoted at $4.10-$4.20 per kilogram live weight.
As demand fluctuates, Wagyu feeder prices have come under pressure, although sales have indicated some promising price points for those steers, reaching around $7 per kilogram live weight. Meanwhile, processors in NSW look to secure reliable sources of grass-fed cattle, estimating prices between $7.30-$7.50 per kilogram.
In southern Western Australia, rain has also positively affected prices, with shipments of quality yearlings seeing price increases of 20-25 cents over the previous week, putting them at $3.50-$3.70 per kilogram live weight. The southern market remains cautiously optimistic about maintaining steady prices going into the peak consumption seasons.
On the horizon, exports from the Broome region are set to commence by late April, bolstered by seasonal expectations of a healthy cross-section of cattle suitable for both domestic and international markets. However, Tasmania continues to face ongoing challenges, struggling with weather patterns that hinder optimal market conditions.
As the cattle export market adjusts, stakeholders remain vigilant, ready to adapt to both international demand fluctuations and internal processing challenges, ensuring that the sector navigates through 2025 with resilience and an eye on future growth.
