Australia is bracing for another season of heightened bushfire risks this autumn as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicts unusually warm temperatures across the nation. The nation's meteorological agency recently warned of warmer weather conditions greatly exceeding the seasonal averages, likely promoting fire activity amid tinder-dry conditions.
"While autumn is often a time for cooler weather to begin, this season is very likely to be warmer than average across Australia, and summer heat may persist through early autumn," noted the BoM. According to forecasts, all states and territories are expected to experience above-average temperatures this season, with some areas facing more than 50 percent chance of experiencing one of the hottest autumns on record.
The risk of bushfires remains prevalent throughout various regions, as parts of southern Australia continue to grapple with the aftermath of summer heat coupled with low rainfall. Regions including Victoria and Tasmania are particularly on alert as the fire season may extend due to the dry conditions. The Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC) indicated the southern coastline would have elevated danger levels over the next three months. AFAC chief executive Rob Webb stressed, "The same dry conditions we've seen lead to recent fires across Victoria and Western Australia look set to continue along much of the southern coastline of mainland Australia."
Western Australia (WA) is also facing heightened fire risks after experiencing record-breaking temperatures this summer. With substantial flat and dry vegetation, the fire conditions allow fires to spread rapidly, especially on windy days. During January, parts of WA recorded extreme temperatures where Perth saw eight days of temperatures surpassing 40 degrees Celsius. "What we have observed is excessive dry weather accompanied by higher temperatures, which accumulates dry fuel on the ground and sets the stage for increased bushfire probability," said BoM meteorologist Jessica Lingard.
The rainfall forecast across Australia this autumn presents uncertainty, with several regions facing the possibility of near-average conditions. Particularly, northern Queensland is set for dry spells, with the Kimberley area of WA scheduled for wetter-than-average conditions. While normal rainfall is anticipated across much of the south, this contradicts conditions expected for large parts of Queensland, raising concerns for local authorities about potential fire outbreaks.
Returning to Victoria, where conditions remain particularly concerning, local fire authorities are advising the public to remain vigilant and heed warnings over bushfire preparedness. "Fire risk remains high until there is substantial rainfall, so we need to stay alert," warned CFA District 15 Chief Fire Officer Lachlan Redman, emphasizing the need for residents not to become complacent as temperatures drop at night. Fire restrictions are still actively monitored as the region continues to prepare for what could be another challenging season for bushfires.
Given the recent history of bushfires and the current forecast, local and regional fire agencies are beginning their preparations. AFAC highlighted the importance of prescribed burning strategies, stating, “Many agencies will also commence prescribed burning throughout autumn to help mitigate risk for the coming months and years." This approach aims to reduce potential fuel loads and thereby decrease the likelihood of uncontrollable fires.
The looming risk is accentuated by predictions of drier conditions, including windy days, even if temperatures are milder. Fire behaviour indices from different regions indicate continued need for high readiness levels and active monitoring across fire-prone territories, as the onset of dryer conditions can fuel rapid fire spread with minimal warning.
Emergency management agencies across the nation are calling for residents living near bushfire-prone areas to have preparedness plans and remain vigilant throughout this autumn. Tim Wiebush, Victoria's emergency management commissioner stated, "With no significant rainfall expected this autumn, we all must remain aware of the risk of fire.”
At this point, it's clear—while summer may have ended, Australia’s fire season is set to extend with warmer temperatures and dry conditions anticipated across vast areas of the country. With authorities on red alert, it is imperative to stay informed, prepared, and ready to act.