For more than a decade, signs have pointed to Australia losing its diplomatic access and influence in Indonesia, a situation that raises alarms given Indonesia's significant role in the Indo-Pacific region. The strategic importance of Indonesia, which lies along Australia’s northern approaches, cannot be understated. Recent developments have only intensified concerns about this shift in dynamics.
In April 2025, Janes reported that Russia had requested access to the Manuhua airbase at Biak, located in Indonesia’s Papua Province. This request comes on the heels of the Chinese navy's maneuver earlier this year, when it transited through Indonesia’s straits to circumnavigate Australia. These actions illustrate a growing entrenchment of foreign military interests in the region, complicating Australia's security landscape.
Indonesia's increasing alignment with China, particularly in economic and foreign policy spheres, has been notable. Since the 1998 democratic transition, Indonesia's economy and international political clout have surged, diminishing the traditional power imbalance that once favored Australia. The election of Joko Widodo in 2014 marked a shift toward a more transactional foreign policy, prioritizing trade, tourism, and investment over promoting democratic norms or taking a strong leadership role in countering Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Throughout Jokowi’s presidency, which spanned from 2014 to 2024, Indonesia has embraced Chinese investment as central to its national development agenda. This includes critical areas such as the digital economy, infrastructure, energy transition, and extractive industries. However, the political landscape has shifted again with the inauguration of President Prabowo Subianto, who has strengthened the influence of Indonesia’s military-security apparatus. His administration's interpretation of the country’s ‘independent and active’ foreign policy has become increasingly unpredictable and less concerned with democratic optics, both domestically and in its international relations.
Under Prabowo, significant changes have occurred, including a budget cut of over 20 percent to the foreign ministry, which could hinder Indonesia's diplomatic capabilities. In November 2024, Indonesia announced its intent to join BRICS, alongside plans for a naval exercise with Russia, an action that some analysts claim undermines its commitment to international law. Earlier that same month, Indonesia entered into a maritime development agreement with China that acknowledged overlapping claims in the South China Sea, raising concerns about legitimizing Beijing’s illegal territorial claims.
Australia's diplomatic troubles with Indonesia are compounded by its own policy missteps. The 2021 announcement of the AUKUS agreement, which involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, has created unease in Jakarta. Successive Australian governments have struggled to align their national defense and foreign policy priorities with a robust educational policy aimed at fostering Indonesia-literate Australians. As highlighted by journalist Hamish McDonald, Australia’s preference for generalists in its international policy bureaucracy has failed to build the deep, trust-based relationships essential for influence in the region.
To effectively counterbalance the growing Chinese and Russian presence, Australia must leverage its networks with individuals who have access to Indonesia’s military and political circles. The uncertainty surrounding the Australia-US alliance, particularly under President Donald Trump’s administration, raises the stakes. There is a pressing need for Australia to reconsider its strategic calculus, especially given the potential for Indonesia to inadvertently facilitate a Chinese or Russian security presence through its waters and airspace.
As Australia grapples with its declining influence, the need for a fresh approach in its policy toward Indonesia is apparent. This could involve rethinking how Australia utilizes its influence through defense, business, education, development, and diplomatic networks. The prospect of a more substantive shift in Indonesia’s foreign and strategic policy alignment poses a significant challenge for Australia, potentially leading to a strategic nightmare scenario.
Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the film industry is facing its own upheaval as US President Donald Trump announced plans for a 100 percent tariff on all movies produced in foreign lands. This proposal has sent shockwaves through the Australian filmmaking community, with many expressing shock and concern over its implications.
Australia's ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, was quick to criticize Trump’s proposed tariff, stating, "I don't think we want to see a tax on Bluey." He emphasized the importance of cultural exchange through films, warning against competitive punitive measures that could harm international understanding. Rudd humorously referenced the impact of tariffs on Australian animated films, suggesting that even beloved characters like Bluey could be affected.
Professor Mark Ryan from the Queensland University of Technology warned that such tariffs could cause massive disruptions to both international and Australian film industries. He noted that many US production companies outsource parts of their films overseas, and imposing tariffs would likely inflate production costs. With nearly half of the $1.7 billion spent on screen production in Australia during 2023-24 allocated to international productions, the financial implications could be significant.
Screen Producers Australia (SPA) echoed these concerns, with chief executive Matthew Deaner stating that the tariff announcement could send "shockwaves" through the global industry. NSW Premier Chris Minns described the proposal as a "real kick in the guts to a great industry," while Arts Minister Tony Burke assured that the Australian government would stand firmly for the rights of the screen industry.
The uncertainty surrounding the tariff's implementation has led to anxiety within the industry. Many professionals rely on international films for their livelihoods, and the prospect of losing a substantial portion of their work is daunting. Ryan noted that should the tariffs proceed, there could be fewer blockbuster films released in theaters, as studios might shift their focus to streaming platforms instead.
Despite the potential for increased movie ticket prices in the US, Australians may remain unaffected at the box office. However, the chilling effect of Trump’s announcement is already being felt, creating instability in production investment decisions. Whether these tariffs will indeed come to fruition remains uncertain, but their mere announcement has already sparked significant concern within the industry.
In both the geopolitical and entertainment arenas, Australia finds itself at a pivotal moment. The need for strategic reassessment and proactive engagement is clear, as both the diplomatic landscape with Indonesia and the film industry face unprecedented challenges.
