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Politics
20 January 2025

Australia Faces Diplomatic Challenges Under Trump

Concerns arise over Australia-China ties and regional climate commitments as Donald Trump begins his second term.

Australia’s relationships with China and Pacific nations might face significant tests under Donald Trump’s second presidency, warns experts.

With Trump’s recent inauguration as the 47th President of the United States attended by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, the political climate is being closely watched down under. Australia is due for federal elections by May 17 and major party politicians are vowing to uphold national security and economic interests through continued cooperation with the US.

Professor Dennis Altman from La Trobe University expressed caution, indicating Trump might leverage the AUKUS trilateral partnership with the US and the UK to put pressure on Australia’s interactions with its largest trading partner, China. “The whole global picture is uncertain,” he noted, highlighting the tightrope Australia must walk.

The AUKUS agreement, which includes plans for Australia to acquire nuclear submarine technology at the cost of $368 billion, enjoys bipartisan support within America. Yet, Altman stresses the precarious nature of how Trump’s administration might operate, noting, “They might use the AUKUS agreement to push Australia” toward decisions unfavorable for its recent re-established relationship with Beijing.

Australia has been working diligently to mend ties with China, especially under the leadership of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Wong. Their success is now deemed jeopardized, exacerbated by rhetoric from opposition political figures who align themselves with Trump's more confrontational stance.

Professor Altman also pointed out potential risks posed to Australia's rapport with Pacific nations under Trump, particularly if the US withdraws from global climate accords. Trump's past declarations of pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement raise apprehensions about the future of climate action initiatives which are pivotal for Pacific Island countries battling existential climate threats.

With Australia forming plans to co-host the 2026 United Nations climate change convention alongside Pacific partners, any diminished commitment to climate policy could disenfranchise these alliances. Altman remarked, “It will give ammunition to the people on the right” who oppose emissions reduction.

“For whom this is an existential issue,” he said, framing the gravity of Australia’s commitment to climate action. This nuance is key, as the region's nations view environmental and climate action as central to their survival.

The political turbulence also reflects broader culture wars influenced by the Trump presidency. Altman warned, “They are going to use the Trump presidency to push back against … woke policies on gender, sexuality and multiculturalism.”

Wong, for her part, articulated the significance of the Australia-US alliance, labeling it “our most important strategic relationship.” During her time following the inauguration, she is scheduled to meet with US officials, including Marco Rubio, the nominee for Secretary of State, as well as counterparts within the Quad alliance.

Following her optimistic demeanor about Trump’s potential engagement with the Middle East, Wong indicated, “There is the opportunity for the Trump administration to take forward” regional stability initiatives.

Her comments came soon after the US and Qatari-backed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ushered hope for lifting hostages, which has lasted 15 months. Wong’s perspective highlighted hopes for progress, particularly surrounding the weakened standing of Iran, viewing it as beneficial for wider security.

Australia's prime minister, Anthony Albanese, also recognized the urgency of resolving the hostage situation and commented on the importance of humanitarian aid for Gaza, underscoring Australia’s commitment to promoting peace and stability.

With these developments, the stakes for Australia's foreign relations are high. Experts note the balancing act Australia faces between bolstering alliances with America, responding effectively to regional challenges presented by China, and addressing climate obligations to Pacific neighbours.

The political engagement should be increasingly reflective of the broader global concerns as Trump’s presidency compels Australia to navigate its way through these complex interactions—an endeavor central to maintaining security and economic wellbeing for its citizens.

This juncture may define how Australia’s foreign policy evolves over the next few years as the political landscapes shift domestically and internationally. Ensuring the sustainability of relationships with China and the Pacific Islands becomes not just desirable but necessary amid the unpredictability of global politics and climate exigencies, precipitated by decisions made across the Pacific Ocean.