As Donald Trump embarks on his second term as president, Australia faces profound shifts in its diplomatic landscape that cast doubt on the strength of the US-Australia alliance. Already, there are alarming signs pointing to the potential undermining of alliances, the imposition of broad tariffs, abandonment of key international partnerships, and the overall degradation of democratic values, particularly through a newfound affinity with Russia.Potential upheaval in the dynamics of the US-Australia alliance has received increasing scrutiny, highlighted by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s urgent call for a comprehensive review of the alliance’s foundations.
Turnbull has been vocal, arguing for the necessity of reassessing "every aspect of our alliance with the Americans," reflecting concerns that “while we can always hope that the United States and other allies will come to our aid, we cannot assume they will.” This sentiment resonates with vigour from senior official Richard Maude, who advocates for a reassessment of Australia's foreign and defence policies. As Maude articulates, “Four long years of Trump, and the aftershocks that will follow, will require Australia to rethink or re-gear elements of its foreign and defence policy and make more determined investments in national resilience.”
The debate surrounding the alliance has taken center stage as both political and bureaucratic environments show little readiness to engage with these challenging issues amidst an imminent federal election. Turnbull emphasizes the need for a small yet robust task force, led by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and Defence, to thoroughly examine the bilateral relationship. Even with a potential change in administration in 2028, he warns that Australia should not expect a return to the pre-Trump era, stating, “the mood in America that Trump both exploits and represents, albeit in an extreme form, is here to stay.”
Yet, the prospect of a fundamental review raises skepticism, especially as political leaders appear reluctant to drive the necessary changes. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has often portrayed himself as a pro-Trump foreign policy advocate and has not pushed for alternatives to the AUKUS alliance, cementing his commitment to stability over experimentation in foreign policy.
If Australia does not see an initiative from the elected officials, the necessary alterations might have to be led by the bureaucracy. However, the current approach from key agencies has been a predominantly passive “wait and see” tactic regarding Trump’s complex geopolitical strategies. While some may argue that a cautious approach aligns with strategic interests, critics claim that it is insufficient for developing a thorough long-term policy.
As the AUKUS partnership pushes forward, questions also arise about alternatives to the agreement. Recent discussions have indicated growing interest in “Plan B” options for Australia’s naval requirements as the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) grapples with the aging Collins-class submarine fleet, which is undergoing a “Life of Type Extension” (LOTE) to potentially last until the 2030s.
The AUKUS initiative is positioned to provide Australia with nuclear submarines to phase out the Collins-class; however, discussions surrounding the viability of alternative submarine options have emerged. This includes proposals to explore the French Suffren-class submarines after the slashing of the initial SEA 1000 program, which aimed to procure conventional vessels from Naval Group before the AUKUS transition. Buying new submarines from France may seem politically untenable given past diplomatic fallout, but interest in reconsidering this option is increasing.
Moreover, abandoning the nuclear-powered approach could present other feasible alternatives, such as acquiring Japan's Soryu-class or Taigei-class submarines, or opting for Germany's Type 212CD submarines. Nonetheless, potential purchasers may face significant procurement and delivery challenges, given the complexities involved in importing submarines designed for different operational environments.
The potential disruption caused by America’s shifting foreign policy and military posture could leave Australia in a precarious situation should AUKUS falter. Various commenters have raised concerns that, without an effective Plan B, the Royal Australian Navy's operational readiness could soon be compromised. As one report concluded, "the Collins-LOTE effort appears increasingly fragile,” highlighting the necessity for contingency planning as time runs short for developing a reliable replacement capacity.
The geopolitical climate in 2025 remains uncertain, and the implications of the US alliance’s reevaluation cannot be understated. An opportunity exists for Australian agencies to present evidence-backed strategies to future administrations to ensure the collaboration with the US remains productive and relevant. Transforming hopes for a stable alliance into actionable policies amid unpredictability will require bold leadership from both political and bureaucratic spheres.
In a world increasingly defined by chaos and change, Australia cannot afford to be caught flat-footed. Failure to engage deeply with the nature of its foreign relations could result in its strategic positions becoming untenable. Whether or not it can successfully navigate these turbulent waters will be a defining aspect of its future on the global stage.
