The AUKUS agreement, announced on September 15, 2021, marks a significant shift in Australia’s military strategy, as the nation partners with the United States and the United Kingdom to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This move, aimed at bolstering security amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, has overshadowed Australia’s previous commitment to purchase conventional submarines from France, resulting in diplomatic fallout and questions about the future of its naval capabilities.
Australia’s ambitious plan involves purchasing between three to five Virginia-class submarines from the US, with the first expected to be delivered by 2032. Alongside this, the UK is set to design and provide another submarine specially crafted for the partnership, anticipated to arrive by the late 2030s. The overarching goal is for Australia to develop its own submarines by the early 2040s, all at an astonishing estimated cost of 368 billion dollars until the mid-2050s.
Despite the promise of advanced technology and increased military capabilities, concerns have emerged about whether the US will deliver on these commitments. Malcolm Turnbull, the former Prime Minister who initially signed the intent for French submarines, has voiced skepticism. He warned, "We spend much more, and I would almost certainly say we will end up without submarines at all," expressing fears about the potential inadequacy of US production capabilities and asserting, "We are giving Americans 3 billion dollars to support their submarine industrial base, but they have no obligation to sell us one."
The abrupt cancellation of the contract with France, originally valued at about 90 billion Australian dollars (approximately 56 billion euros), was seen as nothing short of a diplomatic shock. The fallout was severe, with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian labeling the move as "a stab in the back." France's response included recalling its ambassadors from both Australia and the US, signaling the depth of the diplomatic breach. The deal with France had promised 12 conventional submarines, but Australia’s pivot toward nuclear capabilities came at the cost of its historical defense ties.
Experts worry about the repercussions of this realignment on Australia’s defense independence. The discourse surrounding AUKUS raises alarm bells over Australia's potential reliance on US assets, with submarines potentially operating under American commands. Jim Risch, chairman of the American Senate Foreign Relations Committee, highlighted this issue, stating, "These submarines could carry American flags, transport American weapons, and be commanded by American officers." This casts doubt on Australia’s claim of sovereign military capabilities.
The capacity of the United States to maintain its commitments is under scrutiny, with many questioning the pace of American submarine construction. Observers fear delays similar to or worse than those affecting current US naval projects could leave Australia without the necessary operational submarines. This predicament is compounded by the current geopolitical climate, where allies like Taiwan and Ukraine have faced shifting American priorities.
Former Prime Minister Turnbull suggests exploring alternative arrangements, including possibly rekindling relations with France to acquire the originally intended Suffren-class submarines. Meanwhile, analysts from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) encourage diversifying Australia’s military capabilities, recommending the development of long-range anti-ship missiles and advanced drones as potential contingencies against delays or shortcomings from the AUKUS plan.
The complexity of AUKUS is underscored by the differing interests between Australia and its partners, balancing national security with political realities. Australia’s dilemma encapsulates the broader challenges of modern military alliances where strategic interests and economic imperatives collide. For Australia, the stakes are high— it must navigate its future security environment carefully, preserving the autonomy to defend its territory without excessive dependence on foreign powers.
Looking forward, the AUKUS agreement demonstrates both the promise and peril inherent in military partnerships. The nation must confront hard truths about its defense strategy and the value of international cooperation, ensuring its sovereignty does not become compromised. The uncertainty over submarine deliveries echoes across the policy discussions of the future, pushing Australia to rethink how it allocates its defense priorities against the backdrop of global politics.