The stakes couldn't be higher for Atlético-MG as they prepare to face arch-rivals Cruzeiro this Sunday at the Mineirão stadium. With their hopes of advancing to the semifinals of the Campeonato Mineiro hanging by a thread, the team is fully aware of the ramifications. Following yesterday's mixed results, Atlético-MG finds itself needing to win not just against its fiercest competitor but also to bank on some luck as the final matches of the tournament approach.
The crux of the situation lies within the current positioning of teams within Group A. Having played seven matches, Atlético-MG sits at third place with just 10 points—behind Tombense, which recently took the lead with 13 points after defeating América 1-0, and Betim, which sits at 12 points after drawing 1-1 with Villa Nova. This latest draw and the loss for América have provided Atlético-MG with the glimmer of hope necessary to proceed to the semifinals, but it will be reliant on their performance against Cruzeiro.
With the upcoming match viewed as do-or-die, Atlético needs to secure all three points on Sunday. If they can clinch victory, they will climb to 13 points, overtaking Betim based on the number of wins. Should Atlético-MG manage this feat, they will head to their final match against Itabirito—which is already confirmed as unable to qualify—for what they hope will be the decisive move to solidify their spot as semifinal contenders.
For the Galo, another path involves tying or even losing against Cruzeiro. A draw would earn them 11 points, keeping them behind both Tombense and Betim. Under this scenario, their last encounter against Itabirito would be even more pivotal, as they would need to win and at the same time rely on Betim and Athletic to falter against their opponents.
On the flip side, losing to Cruzeiro could mean disaster for Atlético-MG. Remaining at 10 points would leave them desperately relying on others’ missteps to hold on to any hope of qualifying—forever chasing slips from their rivals.
These scenarios were not lost on team analysts who addressed the pressures faced by Atlético-MG following this weekend's results. "If we win against Cruzeiro, Atlético will take the second position of Group A with 13 points, depending on the number of victories, and will have everything to advance from there," one commentator stressed. Similarly, the importance of Sunday’s match was highlighted, with experts asserting, "Atlético will qualify by winning against Itabirito or with favorable outcomes from rival teams."
Historical perspectives also weigh heavily on this match. Atlético's stature and reputation as one of the top teams within Minas Gerais call for consistent semifinal appearances, and there's pressure to maintain the legacy; the team hasn't missed out on semifinal action since 1997, when both Cruzeiro and Villa Nova made it to the finals instead.
Looking to the future, all teams, including Atlético-MG, will conclude their campaigns on Wednesday, February 12, with simultaneous matches starting at 19h45. Atlético-MG’s final game against Itabirito will serve as the last test for the team’s resolve. The Galo must win decisively against Itabirito—if they do so, they'll have to wait and see how the other matches play out.
Should Atlético-MG win against both Cruzeiro and Itabirito, they could finish the preliminary phase with 16 points, which could either secure them the second-best record among the finalists or give them the best chance to advance if they finish second. Conversely, any slip could deal their campaign its fatal blow.
This intense atmosphere surrounding the match escalates anticipation across Brazil as fans rally behind their favorite teams, and as history looms above, support intensifies. Atlético-MG is only focused on their play, certain of one fact: the only way to rise is to win.