The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is once again turning its attention to the far eastern tropical Atlantic, where a new tropical wave has caught the eye of meteorologists and coastal residents alike. As of Sunday, August 31, 2025, forecasters reported that this system, which is moving off the west coast of Africa, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms—but it could be poised to become the next significant player in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
According to the NHC’s 8 a.m. update, the tropical wave is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic throughout the first week of September. The agency noted, “Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend.” By Sunday evening, the NHC had increased its estimate, giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days—a notable uptick from the 30% chance reported just days earlier, as highlighted by USA TODAY.
If this tropical wave does organize and strengthen, it would become the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season. The next name on the National Hurricane Center’s list is Gabrielle, a fact that’s already fueling speculation among weather watchers and residents along the Atlantic coast. The most recent named system, Tropical Storm Fernand, became post-tropical early Thursday, August 28, after traversing the north Atlantic. So far, only one of the six named storms this year has reached hurricane status, but it was a memorable one: Hurricane Erin.
Hurricane Erin, which achieved Category 5 status with winds reaching a staggering 160 mph earlier in August, was the season’s behemoth. While it ultimately did not make landfall, its impact was still felt far and wide. According to USA TODAY, Erin’s rough surf and powerful rip currents damaged beaches along much of the Atlantic Coast. Tragically, the storm’s effects were linked to the deaths of two swimmers—one in New Hampshire and another off Long Island. Additionally, a boater in his 50s went missing after his vessel capsized off the coast of Massachusetts on August 25. These sobering incidents serve as a reminder that even storms that don’t make landfall can pose serious dangers to those living near or visiting the coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 through November 30, typically reaches its peak on September 10. But as seasoned forecasters and longtime residents know, the action doesn’t always stick to the calendar. In fact, 13 of last year’s named storms formed on or after September 9, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton. That historical context is fueling both concern and vigilance as the heart of the season approaches.
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its seasonal outlook, predicting a total of 13 to 18 named storms for 2025. Of those, five to nine are expected to become hurricanes, and two to five could reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher. These projections underscore the need for preparation and awareness, especially as the Atlantic basin enters its most active period.
But what exactly is a tropical wave, and why does it matter? The National Weather Service explains that a tropical wave is an inverted trough—essentially an elongated area of relatively low pressure—or a cyclonic curvature maximum, which means a strong point of curved wind flow, moving from east to west across the tropics. These waves are the seeds from which many Atlantic hurricanes sprout. Hurricanes themselves are born above warm tropical waters, where clusters of thunderstorms can organize and, if conditions are just right, begin to swirl. Once a tropical depression’s sustained winds reach 39 mph, it earns a name; at 74 mph, it’s officially a hurricane.
Given the potential for rapid storm development, especially during the peak of the season, experts stress the importance of early and thorough preparation. NOAA’s recommendations, cited by USA TODAY, are clear and practical: “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.”
These preparations involve several key steps:
1. Develop an evacuation plan: If you’re in a hurricane-prone area, it’s crucial to know where you’d go and how you’d get there if an evacuation becomes necessary.
2. Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you plan to evacuate or shelter in place, you’ll need enough food, water, medications, and other essentials to last through the storm and its aftermath.
3. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now to ensure you have adequate coverage for repairs or replacement of your home and belongings. Remember, standard policies don’t cover flooding, so a separate flood policy—subject to a 30-day waiting period—is essential for many homeowners.
4. Create a family communication plan: Write down your hurricane plan and share it with all family members. Designate meeting places, including an out-of-town location in case local evacuation is necessary.
5. Strengthen your home: Trim trees, install storm shutters or impact glass, and seal outside wall openings to improve your home’s resilience against high winds and flying debris.
The NHC’s forecast track offers guidance on the most likely path of a developing storm’s center, but it’s not a guarantee. In fact, the center of a storm can travel outside the projected “cone” up to a third of the time, and the impacts—such as wind, rain, and storm surge—can extend far beyond the cone itself.
With the Atlantic basin entering the traditional height of hurricane season, the stakes are high. Residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are urged to stay informed, heed official warnings, and prepare now—before shelves empty and evacuation routes become congested. As the NHC continues to monitor the developing tropical wave, the coming days will reveal whether Gabrielle will join the list of 2025’s named storms.
For now, all eyes remain on the tropics. The lessons of Hurricane Erin and the unpredictable nature of hurricane season serve as stark reminders: it’s always better to be ready than to be caught off guard.