The Houston Astros, a team synonymous with postseason baseball for nearly a decade, now find themselves at a pivotal crossroads. After a grueling 2025 campaign that ended just one win shy of the playoffs, the franchise faces pressing questions about its future. Can this storied club bounce back in 2026, or is a deeper rebuild looming on the horizon?
Former MLB general manager Jim Bowden certainly has his take. In his recent piece for The Athletic, Bowden ranked the Astros as the No. 1 non-playoff team most likely to return to October glory next season. He pointed squarely to the club’s injury woes as the main culprit for their 2025 collapse, writing, “When healthy, the middle of the Astros’ lineup can carry their offense. It’s a group led by José Altuve, Alvarez, Christian Walker, Peña, Carlos Correa and Isaac Paredes. They also have two young position players who are going to continue to improve, outfielders Cam Smith and Zach Cole.”
On the surface, Bowden’s optimism seems justified. The Astros’ core lineup remains formidable, at least in name. José Altuve, the 2017 AL MVP, still commands respect, but there’s no denying the signs of age. His 2025 slash line—.265/.329/.442 with a .771 OPS—marked a notable decline from his .915 and .921 marks in 2023 and 2022. Sure, Altuve flashed vintage brilliance with a scorching July (.363 average, 1.055 OPS), but his numbers faded in August (.695 OPS) and September (.680 OPS). At 35, Altuve is no longer the engine he once was, and his hot streaks are getting shorter.
The rest of the lineup carries its own share of question marks. Carlos Correa, once a power threat, suffered a major power outage in 2025. Christian Walker, expected to be a middle-of-the-order force, struggled so much that the team reportedly explored trading him at the deadline. The promising youngsters, Cam Smith and Zach Cole, showed flashes of potential but have yet to prove themselves over a full season—Smith’s early momentum fizzled, and Cole’s 52 plate appearances are a tiny sample size. While Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, and Isaac Paredes remain solid contributors, the supporting cast is far from a sure thing. Jake Meyers’ offensive outburst in 2025 surprised many, but it’s uncertain if he can repeat that success. Jesus Sanchez, acquired at the deadline, faces a non-tender deadline and may not even return.
But if the lineup is a patchwork of hope and uncertainty, the Astros’ rotation is an outright puzzle. Injuries ravaged Houston’s pitching staff in 2025. The opening day five—Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, and Hayden Wesneski—looked promising in February. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. were supposed to add depth by spring, but both were derailed by injuries. In total, a staggering fifteen pitchers started at least one game for Houston this season, a testament to the team’s battered rotation.
Despite the chaos, Astros starters managed to finish 14th in MLB in ERA (3.97), third in quality starts (70), sixth in strikeout rate (23.7%), eighth in opponents’ batting average (.236), and 10th in innings pitched (863 2/3). That’s not too shabby, right? But dig a little deeper, and the cracks show. Only two pitchers—Framber Valdez (192 innings) and Hunter Brown (185 1/3 innings)—surpassed 86 innings on the year, the lowest total for any MLB team in 2025. Injuries forced Houston to rely on unheralded arms and minor league call-ups, with mixed results.
Hunter Brown was the undeniable ace, building on his 2024 breakout to finish second in ERA (2.43), third in strikeouts (206), and fifth in opponents’ batting average (.201) among American League starters. Brown’s emergence is a bright spot, but he can’t carry the rotation alone. Valdez, for his part, formed a potent 1-2 punch with Brown until his performance dipped in the season’s final two months. Now, Valdez is set to become one of the top free-agent pitchers on the market, and his return to Houston is highly uncertain. As Valdez said on the season’s final day, “I would love to stay in an Astros uniform,” but the Astros have never guaranteed more than $85 million to a starter under owner Jim Crane, and Valdez may command much more.
Other rotation options come with their own baggage. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski will likely miss at least the start of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Spencer Arrighetti ended the season on the injured list, and while he doesn’t expect to need surgery, his 5.35 ERA in seven starts raises concerns. Luis Garcia, after a 28-month recovery from Tommy John, made just two starts before another elbow injury and will miss all of 2026. Brandon Walter and Jason Alexander filled in admirably at times—Walter with a 3.35 ERA in nine starts and Alexander with a 3.66 in 14—but both suffered injuries or have limited upside. Cristian Javier returned from Tommy John in August and made eight starts, offering a glimmer of hope, but his 4.62 ERA in 37 innings suggests he’s not fully back to form. Lance McCullers Jr., in his return from a 2½-year absence, struggled mightily with a 6.51 ERA in 55 1/3 innings.
The bullpen and minor league depth aren’t much rosier. The Astros’ farm system, once the envy of baseball, is now described as “mostly barren.” Prospects like Miguel Ullola, Jose Fleury, Ethan Pecko, Bryce Mayer, and Alonzo Tredwell had varying degrees of success in the minors, but none is a surefire solution for the big league rotation in 2026. General manager Dana Brown acknowledged the challenge at his end-of-season press conference, saying, “We’re going to probably be in the market, for sure, to trade for an arm.” The reality? Houston may need more than one proven starter to stabilize the rotation.
Financially, the Astros have some flexibility, with several eight-figure contracts coming off the books. Hunter Brown is entering his first year of arbitration and is projected to earn $5.7 million. Wesneski is also arbitration-eligible, projected at $1.5 million, while others like Arrighetti, Blanco, Alexander, and J.P. France remain in pre-arbitration. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. are in the midst of multi-year deals, but their health and effectiveness are far from guaranteed.
Leadership questions also hang over the organization. General manager Dana Brown’s contract status is in flux, raising uncertainty for manager Joe Espada and the entire front office. With a depleted farm system and a roster in transition, some insiders wonder if a regime change could trigger a full-scale rebuild. Owner Jim Crane’s willingness to spend big will be tested—if ever there was a time to open the wallet, it’s now, but history suggests that’s unlikely.
So, what’s next for the Astros? The franchise still boasts a handful of stars and a culture of winning, but the margin for error has evaporated. The 2026 offseason looms large, with the need for starting pitching at the very top of the priority list. Whether through trades or free agency, Houston must act decisively to shore up its rotation and address lineup holes if it hopes to return to playoff prominence.
For now, Astros fans are left in a rare state of uncertainty. The window for contention hasn’t slammed shut, but it’s certainly creaking. All eyes will be on Houston’s front office this winter as they attempt to chart a course back to October—and prove that the Astros’ dynasty isn’t over just yet.
