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31 January 2025

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Raises Alarms For Potential Earth Impact

With a slim chance of collision, astronomers urge caution and continued observation of asteroid 2024 YR4 as it approaches Earth.

Scientists have turned their focus to asteroid 2024 YR4, which has gained attention for its potential impact with Earth scheduled for December 22, 2032. Following NASA's analysis, it has been deemed to have more than a one percent chance of collision, leading to its elevated status on impact risk lists maintained by prominent space agencies.

Measured between 40 and 100 meters wide, this asteroid has sparked considerable discussion about its possible effects if it were to collide with our planet. Rachel Ward-Maxwell, a researcher-programmer of astronomy and space sciences at the Ontario Science Centre, remarked, “It was important for it to be brought to the attention of public officials and astronomers.”

Despite the asteroid’s precarious position, experts such as Ward-Maxwell have downplayed immediate worries, affirming, “We really don’t need to be worried about this at all right now. It’s a very, very low probability it will hit the Earth.” Her statements highlight the expectation of reassessment and possibly lower risk ratings as more observations come to light.

Currently ranked Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, 2024 YR4's collision risk warrants monitoring as calculations indicate local destruction could result from impact. This level marks one of the highest classifications assigned to near-Earth asteroids. “We actually have only had maybe one other body ranked higher, and it was Level 4,” explained Ward-Maxwell.

The Torino Scale categorizes potential Earth impact events from Level 0, indicating no risk, to Level 10, which denotes certain catastrophic collisions. With updated observations, experts believe it’s likely 2024 YR4’s rating could drop, moving toward the zero risk classification.

A closer look reveals the asteroid was first reported on December 27, 2024, following its identification by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station based in Chile. The day after, 2024 YR4 appeared on NASA's automated Sentry risk list, piquing interest among astronomers trying to determine more precise measurements about its size and path.

Scientific consensus maintains the asteroid poses no threat at this time, with details still vague. Following tests and additional examinations through April 2025, scientists aim to refine their predictions on its orbital path—which could lead to even lower impact probabilities.

Tim Spahr, managing the International Asteroid Warning Network, stated, "It is nice to see it all come together." The presence of 2024 YR4 has prompted collaborative international efforts, underscoring the significance of global monitoring for such potentially hazardous objects.

But what if the asteroid did collide with Earth? Experts warn of possible consequences. With estimates projecting the asteroid could yield serious damage upon impact, including the potential for widespread destructive force, they describe such asteroids as "city-killers."

If it were to collide with Earth, calculations predict the explosion would generate fatal energy comparable to approximately ten megatons of TNT. This compares dramatically to the historical impacts of events like the HEI during the Tunguska Incident of 1908. Brown estimated the fallout could extend as far as 50 kilometers from the impact site.

“An object this big with this chance is right at the lower threshold of where we start to put measures to monitor it closely,” said Brown, underscoring the urgency of observational efforts.

Current efforts look to add clarity and reinforce monitoring systems as asteroid 2024 YR4 moves along its orbit and returns for observation every four years. Given its past, including the experience surrounding the formerly precarious position of Apophis and its eventual downgrading after improved measurements, scientists remain hopeful.

The presence of asteroid 2024 YR4 on registries has served as both warning and opportunity for preparation as threats from outer space are assessed, drawing the gaze of astronomers and engaging public interest. Continuing examinations may soon lead to lower ratings or improved understandings of its projected path.