Space agencies are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been identified as having a slim chance, approximately 1.2%, of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. According to reports from both the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, this near-Earth object is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet (40 to 100 meters) wide, comparable to the size of a large building. Although there is significant concern, it’s equally important to note there is nearly 99% likelihood it will safely pass by our planet, making it one of the primary objects of interest for astronomers right now.
The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 occurred on December 27, 2024, using the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope located in Río Hurtado, Chile. Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), indicated the asteroid was bright enough to be detected as it was situated near Earth. Following its detection, automated warning systems classified it with a nonzero probability of impacting Earth, raising its status on both ESA’s and NASA’s lists.
Dr. Paul Chodas, director for the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, emphasized the potential for serious local damage should this asteroid eventually collide with Earth. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," said Chodas, signaling the need for vigilance. If it did hit, the damage could extend up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact site due to the high speed at which it would enter the Earth's atmosphere, approximately 38,028 miles per hour (17 kilometers per second).
Since early January 2025, astronomers have been using multiple telescopes worldwide, including the Very Large Telescope in Chile and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, to track 2024 YR4. Farnocchia mentioned, "The longer we track an asteroid, the more precise the prediction," highlighting the importance of continuous surveillance to refine the asteroid's size and future path. Currently, 2024 YR4 is 28 million miles away from Earth and moving farther away, but it will return to visibility as it makes its orbit back toward the planet around 2028.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), both endorsed by the United Nations, have activated to coordinate tracking and evaluation of 2024 YR4. IAWN, for example, focuses on assessing the outcomes of any potential impact and how to mitigate damage. Mahening up plans for possible responses would only become imperative if the projected impact probability were to escalate significantly.
Indeed, the process of monitoring and tracking near-Earth asteroids is becoming increasingly relevant. For example, NASA's successful DART mission demonstrated the potential for redirecting asteroids if necessary. The mission saw a spacecraft crashing intentionally at high speed to test the effectiveness of changing the path of asteroids. This capability will be critically important if asteroid 2024 YR4's risk level increases and does warrant attention.
At present, astronomers urge caution as they keep their eyes on 2024 YR4. Chodas reiterated, “We are not worried at all because of this — 99 percent chance it will miss,” indicating the current level of risk is low. Nonetheless, the situation serves as a reminder of the moving parts of space monitoring; with improved technology, the scientific community is steadily increasing its capabilities to track bodies like 2024 YR4.
2024 YR4 is presently listed at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating it is far from becoming an imminent danger, but it remains worthy of attention and study. Overall, experts from both NASA and the ESA continue to evaluate data, raise the alarm when necessary, and keep the public informed as they navigate the fascinating and often unpredictable domain of our solar system.