A colossal explosion in the sky, unleashing energy hundreds of times greater than the Hiroshima bomb, could be on the horizon. A newly detected asteroid, nearly the size of a football field, has over one percent chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. This potential impact poses significant threats, particularly to urban centers.
Scientists are closely monitoring the asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, which was first spotted by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile on December 27, 2024. Astronomical data suggests it is between 130 to 300 feet wide (40-90 meters). Its discovery prompted concerns within NASA, and the agency is now keeping it under surveillance as the risk assessment increases.
According to calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is currently a 1.6 percent chance of the asteroid hitting Earth. If an impact were to occur, potential sites range from the eastern Pacific Ocean to northern South America and parts of Africa, including the Arabian Sea and South Asia, as noted by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
Despite this disquieting news, experts urge calm. Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, emphasized the importance of monitoring the asteroid, stating, “At this point, it's 'Let's pay a lot of attention, let's get as many assets as we can observing it.'” NASA's Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer, also commented on the asteroid's continuing observations, noting its potential to remain observable rather than being lost to space.
The potential consequences of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth could be catastrophic. An impact could lead to devastation similar to the 1908 Tunguska Event, where aerial explosions destroyed vast forested areas. Andrew Rivkin, planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, stated, “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs.” The energy released from the estimated airburst would be akin to eight megatons of TNT—over 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
Fortunately, there is time to prepare. Rivkin led NASA's DART mission, which successfully tested how to redirect asteroids from potential collisions with Earth. Researchers are exploring various methods, including the use of lasers to vaporize parts of asteroids or even deploying what’s called a gravity tractor to alter their course through gravitational manipulation. While these options are still theoretical, the long warning time allows for possible evacuation and mitigation strategies.
Emerging technologies, like those tested with NASA’s DART mission, provide hope. Rivkin highlighted the success of the DART project, indicating it provides viable pathways to potentially address such threatening asteroids. For now, scientists remain optimistic; Betts suggested, “The odds are very good not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point, the probability will go to zero.”
Public concern about asteroid impacts often echoes historical events; the most notorious being the impact 66 million years ago which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Rivkin, reflecting on past events, argued, “We can find these things, make these predictions, and have the ability to plan.” While the focus is on the asteroids threatening our planet, the action of monitoring and assessing risk continues to help build defenses.
Citizen scientists and institutions alike are encouraged to pay attention to such developments, as expertise surrounding asteroid detection and mitigation progresses. Advocates for planetary defense echo the importance of keeping informed and contributing to discussions surrounding space risk. Asteroids, such as 2024 YR4, remind us of our vulnerable position within the cosmos and the pressing need to remain vigilant.