Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently drawing significant attention from astronomers and space agencies around the world, following new calculations indicating it may collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. The likelihood of impact has recently increased, now estimated at approximately 2.3%, or about 1 in 43 chance, marking it as the highest threat among asteroids monitored by NASA.
The asteroid, which measures between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) across, was first observed on December 27, 2024, by the Catalina Sky Survey. Initial estimates suggested the odds of impact were much lower, approximately 1.2%, but recent observations have significantly raised those probabilities. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), the asteroid tops the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) risk list.
NASA’s latest data, reported at the end of January 2025, shows the asteroid is currently located about 48 million kilometers (30 million miles) from Earth and is moving away from our planet. The agency has emphasized the asteroid's potential for localized damage if it were to collide with Earth, primarily due to its speed, estimated at 17 kilometers per second (38,000 mph). “If the asteroid turns out to be on the large end of its estimated size range, the impact could produce blast damage as far as 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact site,” Dr. Paul Chodas, manager for CNEOS, noted.
To assess the asteroid’s size and orbital details, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will observe 2024 YR4 during two specific opportunities—in March and May 2025—as it approaches the phase where it will be out of sight until 2028. Despite the high demand for JWST’s resources, astronomers are optimistic about gathering valuable data during this limited observation time. “The brighter the asteroid, the larger it is, but this strongly depends on how reflective the asteroid’s surface is,” ESA officials stated, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s actual size.
Tracking the asteroid's path and refining estimates has been the subject of collaborative efforts among global space agencies, with formal alerts sent to various planetary defense organizations, including the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs. Given the increasing scrutiny of its potential impact, the asteroid was assigned a Torino Scale rating of 3—indicating it is large enough to cause localized damage, should it hit.
Experts acknowledge the chaotic nature of predicting asteroid paths. Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, explained, “The uncertainty of the asteroid's path decreases as observations come in.” He reassured the public by stating, “While the odds of impact appear to rise initially due to the uncertainty, they often drop back to zero as we learn more.”
Historically, astronomers have faced the challenge of detecting asteroids obscured by sunlight, which complicates tracking efforts. Research following established protocols allows astronomers to catalog new observations and confirm potential threats over time. Fortunately, it’s not the first time Earth has faced asteroid threats. Events like the Tunguska Event and the infamous Chicxulub impact from 65 million years ago highlight the potential dangers posed by larger asteroids.
Should 2024 YR4 pose an unavoidable threat, possible intervention strategies could be put to use, similar to NASA's DART mission, which successfully redirected the asteroid Dimorphos through kinetic impact testing. NASA has consistently reported optimism surrounding mitigation strategies, pointing out the progress made over years of scientific research.
While currently the odds remain low, space agencies have confirmed they will continue monitoring 2024 YR4 closely, gathering data through extensive observation campaigns. Astronomers believe as more information is collected over time, the likelihood of impact will likely dwindle, ruling out 2024 YR4 as significant threat to Earth.
The global astronomical community remains vigilant, ensuring comprehensive monitoring of potential asteroid threats. This era of technological advancement continues to furnish astronomers with improved tools to track and analyze the behaviors of these space rocks—further enhancing efforts to predict and address any serious risks to our planet. Prioritizing public awareness and transparency about these extraterrestrial observations has become fundamental as we navigate the vastness of space.