Cities worldwide are facing increasing risks due to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, as they continue to expand and urbanize. A recent study focusing on Bojnord City, the capital of North Khorasan Province in Iran, reveals significant insights on the spatial and temporal dimensions of earthquake risk and resilience, offering imperative guidelines for urban disaster management planning.
The research employs spatial information systems combined with fuzzy logic methodologies to assess urban resilience and risk associated with earthquakes. Through comprehensive analyses, researchers identified seven key criteria and 27 sub-criteria addressing various facets of vulnerability. The study highlights notable disparities by evaluating resilience at different times of the day. According to the findings, certain areas of Bojnord remain consistently at high risk with low resilience irrespective of the time—an alarming reality underscoring the necessity for continuous disaster preparedness plans.
"The results highlight the significance of integrating both temporal and spatial aspects in risk assessments and urban resilience evaluations to improve the effectiveness of disaster management plans," wrote the authors of the article. The methodology used includes the Deterministic Analytic Network Process (DANP) for weighing criteria and the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) model, which allows for flexibility based on specific risk aversion strategies.
Bojnord City spans approximately 36 square kilometers and sits within seismic zones, making it particularly vulnerable to earthquake hazards. Over the past decade, 152 earthquakes with magnitudes of 4 or higher have occurred within 300 kilometers of the city. Given its historical vulnerability and rapid urban development—often lacking adequate infrastructure—assessing the resilience of Bojnord becomes imperative, particularly as developments do not necessarily align with the community's needs.
Urban resilience against disasters is defined as the capacity of cities to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from adverse events. The research indicates the importance of both social and physical factors, focusing on how dynamics like population density shift through the day significantly impact resilience. The study notes, "Resilience is a form of foresight due to the dynamic nature of society’s response to risks." Hence, populations must be well-informed and prepared to reduce vulnerability during seismic threats.
The study identifies specific factors influencing urban resilience, which include accessibility to emergency services, population density, and proximity to hazard zones. The temporal modeling of population density—analyzed through expansive datasets from taxis operating within the city—reveals shifts from central business areas to suburbs throughout the day, significantly affecting vulnerability during peak hours.
Overall, the findings underline the necessity for targeted interventions aimed at strengthening urban infrastructure, enhancing emergency service accessibility, and increasing public awareness to improve resilience against earthquakes. The research guides authorities on how to allocate resources effectively and emphasizes the role of continuous monitoring to adapt disaster response strategies as urban dynamics evolve. Effective planning should account for not only the inherent physical qualities of buildings but also the social characteristics of the population inhabiting them.
While the assessment term quantifies risk clearly, the complexity lies within locality dynamics and how resilience often does not follow expected patterns. Factors such as socioeconomic challenges and population vulnerability complicate the urban resilience narrative.