Ashlyn Krueger stunned the tennis world on Thursday, March 20, 2025, defeating world number eight and former finalist Elena Rybakina in a thrilling match at the WTA Miami Open. Krueger, a rising star from the United States, showcased her talent in front of an appreciative home crowd, while Rybakina, coming in with a 77% projected win probability, suffered an unexpected defeat that has been termed the biggest upset of the tournament so far.
The match, which took place in Miami Gardens, Florida, unfolded in dramatic fashion, with Krueger clinching the victory with set scores of 6-4, 2-6, 6-4. This result marks a significant milestone in Krueger's young career and adds to the unpredictability that the sport of tennis often brings.
Leading up to the match, predictions were heavily leaning towards Rybakina, with data analysts forecasting her to win more than three-quarters of the time. According to Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn, “Using the latest data, we simulated Thursday's Krueger-Rybakina match 10,000 times. Taking into account recent updates and various additional inputs, we forecast Elena Rybakina with a win probability of 77% and Ashlyn Krueger with 23%.” However, the odds proved to be misleading as Krueger stepped up her game remarkably.
Throughout the match, Krueger demonstrated her powerful service game, rattling off eight aces and successfully winning 71% of her first serve points. This performance echoed her earlier victory in the tournament where she had impressed with clutch plays, winning four of eight break points. Krueger's ability to capitalize on key moments played a critical role in her triumph over Rybakina.
Conversely, Rybakina, despite her high ranking and previous accolades, including a strong performance in recent tournaments, found herself struggling against the younger competitor. The match was a test of nerves and skills, showcasing Krueger’s resolve and determination. Although Rybakina managed to take the second set convincingly, Krueger regrouped and delivered an outstanding performance in the final set to seal her victory.
The betting odds before the match were illustrative of Rybakina's expected dominance: Moneyline odds were set at Krueger +275, while Rybakina was at -357, indicating a strong expectation for a Rybakina win. For the first set, the odds were similar, reflecting Krueger’s underdog status with the odds reading +220 against Rybakina’s -278. Such statistics were turned upside down by Krueger’s remarkable performance.
Looking ahead, this upset opens up the draw significantly for Krueger in the tournament, setting her up for a potentially more favorable match-up in the next round. As she celebrated her surprising win, the question now is how this victory will impact her confidence and trajectory for the remainder of the Miami Open and beyond.
For Rybakina, this surprising exit raises concerns regarding her current form and readiness for the upcoming clay season, where she needs to regroup quickly to regain her footing ahead of other significant tournaments.
Foot traffic buzzed around the Miami Gardens venue as fans discussed the electrifying showdown, reinforcing the unpredictable nature of competitive tennis where every match can shift in an instant, ensuring that both players remain in the spotlight of this thrilling sport.
Elena Rybakina’s unexpected exit and Ashlyn Krueger's rise in the Miami Open not only grab headlines but also provide excitement for tennis fans globally, heralding a new era of competition where young talent continues to challenge the seasoned players. With each stroke and rally, the excitement builds for what’s next in this ever-evolving landscape of women’s tennis in 2025.
