On a brisk Sunday in September 2025, the Radisson Hotel in Cedar Rapids buzzed with the energy of more than 150 supporters as U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson officially launched her campaign for Iowa’s soon-to-be-vacant U.S. Senate seat. The Marion Republican’s bid, announced just hours after Sen. Joni Ernst revealed she would not seek reelection in 2026, has quickly become the focal point of Iowa’s political landscape, drawing national attention and setting the stage for a contentious race with high stakes for both parties.
Hinson, who has represented Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District since 2020, wasted no time consolidating support from the Republican establishment. Within days of her announcement, she secured endorsements from President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott. Standing before her supporters, Hinson pledged, “I am honored to fight alongside [President Trump] to fix what Joe Biden broke. We are putting America first, and we are making America great again. Mr. President, I want to say thank you for your support. I will not let you down.” (Iowa Capital Dispatch)
Her campaign message was clear: Iowa Republicans must not become complacent if they want to ensure Trump’s agenda can be fully realized in a second term. “If we keep Iowa red, we will help make sure President Trump can have a full four years of wins and deliver results for you that will last for a generation and beyond,” Hinson told the crowd, according to reporting by The Des Moines Register. She warned that despite recent Republican successes, “Democrats are not just going to fade silently into the night.”
Hinson’s policy priorities echo the national Republican platform—and Trump’s own talking points. She emphasized securing the U.S. border, deporting undocumented immigrants, and “keeping men out of girls’ sports,” a reference to ongoing debates about transgender athletes. She also promised to cut taxes for working families, support Iowa’s farmers, help young people buy homes, and “strengthen Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security for our seniors.”
Central to her campaign is the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” a law signed by President Trump that extends tax cuts from 2017, eliminates taxes on tips and overtime pay, and reduces federal Medicaid spending by an estimated $911 billion over ten years. Hinson and Iowa’s Republican congressional delegation voted in favor of the measure, which Republicans have rebranded as the “Working Families Tax Cut Act.” “We passed President Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts,” Hinson said. “And guess what? It does exactly what it says: No more tax on tips, no more taxes on overtime. We’re protecting our seniors. Middle-class tax cuts that actually help middle-class families. Permanent tax relief for our small businesses and our family farms.” (The Des Moines Register)
However, the Congressional Budget Office projects that while the law will increase after-tax income for the wealthiest Americans—especially the top 10%—it will disadvantage the poorest households. The bottom 10% of earners are expected to lose an average of $1,200 annually due to cuts in social safety net programs, a point Democrats have seized upon as they shape their messaging for the campaign.
Hinson’s campaign is also heavily personal. Describing herself as a “mama bear who refuses to stand by and allow my kids to grow up in a country run by liberals who want to ditch the American experiment and set up some kind of crazy liberal dystopia,” she positioned herself as a bulwark against what she called “radical left lunacy.” She argued that Democrats want to turn Iowa into “another California or New York,” states she claims have been harmed by progressive policies. “That’s the vision the Democrats in this race in Iowa are fighting for,” Hinson said. “They want to push Iowa to the coasts. They want to push our country past the brink. Guess what? I’m not going to let them do that.” (Iowa Capital Dispatch)
Her sharpest criticism was reserved for state Sen. Zach Wahls, whom she labeled a “far-left” Democrat “masquerading as a moderate, hoping to fool Iowans into believing that they share our values.” Hinson quipped about Iowans having “rejected the last Walz,” a playful jab at Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who shares a similar name with Wahls and was Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in the 2024 presidential election. “We’ll do the same for this one,” she said.
Wahls, for his part, fired back, telling reporters that Hinson’s policies mirror those of Joni Ernst, which he argues are unpopular and have contributed to a “broken economy” and political corruption in Washington. “Whether it’s Joni Ernst, Ashley Hinson, I think Iowans understand that Washington leaders have failed our state and they’re ready to change,” Wahls said. On social media, he challenged Hinson directly: “If you want to debate Iowa values, Ashley—name a time and place. I’ll be there.”
The Democratic field vying for the party’s nomination is crowded. In addition to Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Director Nathan Sage, Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris, and former state lawmaker Bob Krause are all in the running. All four spoke at the Polk County Democrats’ Steak Fry, signaling that their campaign strategies would remain focused despite the shifting dynamics of the race.
Hinson’s path to the Republican nomination, while bolstered by high-profile endorsements and a significant fundraising advantage—she reported raising $854,000 in the most recent quarter and has $2.8 million cash on hand—is not unchallenged. Former state legislator Jim Carlin, who brands himself as a “true conservative” and pledges loyalty to Trump’s agenda, and former Libertarian Joshua Smith are also seeking the GOP nod. Still, Hinson’s campaign appears to be “off to a rocking start,” as she told her supporters.
The political environment in Iowa remains favorable for Republicans. Election forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections continue to rate the race as “likely Republican,” even in the wake of Ernst’s retirement. But Hinson and her allies are not taking anything for granted. “We cannot rest on our laurels, though, and I think we all know that we have not come this far to only go this far,” Hinson warned. “We have to keep Iowa red when it comes to the Senate, when it comes to our governor’s race, all of our statewide offices, our congressional seats and our leaders in the legislature.”
In a poignant moment, Hinson addressed the recent assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, thanking him for his legacy. “He passionately sought that unfiltered truth in the most American way possible, which was to have that honest, civil debate and discourse with people,” she said. “And he really inspired a true generation of people, and he delivered results that changed millions of people’s lives for the better.”
As the campaign season heats up, both parties are gearing up for a race that will test Iowa’s political loyalties and could shape the national balance of power. For Hinson, the message is simple but urgent: keep Iowa red, keep Trump’s agenda alive, and don’t underestimate the opposition—even if, as she quipped, “today, it seems like they are pretty much a joke, right?”
The months ahead promise a spirited contest, with Iowans at the center of a debate over the future of their state—and the country.