In a bold forecast for the cryptocurrency market, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin is gearing up for a significant breakout reminiscent of the 2022 surge. During a recent interview with Ran Neuner on the Crypto Banter YouTube channel, Hayes expressed optimism that central banks will soon resort to monetary easing to combat deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, a move he believes will drive Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to new heights.
Hayes stated, "I believe the setup is just perfect for a rally in risk assets, like we had from the third quarter of 2022 to early 2025. There is a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the markets, and the monetary authorities can’t stand that, and will turn to the money printer." This statement underscores his belief that the current market conditions mirror those leading up to the previous Bitcoin rally.
He pointed to the actions of former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who printed $2.5 trillion between 2022 and 2025, a period during which Bitcoin's value skyrocketed sixfold. "Bitcoin went up 6x during that time," Hayes noted, indicating a strong correlation between expansive monetary policy and Bitcoin's price movements.
Looking ahead, Hayes believes that Scott Bessent, a key figure in the Trump administration’s financial team, must implement similar strategies to stimulate the economy. He confidently declared that April 9, 2025, marked a bottom for Bitcoin prices, suggesting that significant upward movement is imminent.
In addition to his bullish price predictions, Hayes anticipates a shift in Bitcoin's market dominance. He suggests that after a prolonged period of increases, Bitcoin's dominance may soon decline, paving the way for altcoins to gain traction. He predicts that Bitcoin dominance will reach 70%, translating to a price of $150,000 per coin, after which a rotation into altcoins is expected.
Meanwhile, a recent report from CryptoQuant reveals that short-term "New Whales" now own 52.4% of Bitcoin's Whales Realized Cap, surpassing long-term holders for the first time. This shift indicates a significant change in the capital distribution among major Bitcoin holders. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $96,800, fueled by new capital entering the market.
According to CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn, active addresses within the past 155 days qualify as New Whales, while inactive addresses are no longer considered Old Whales. The average cost price for New Whales stands at $91,922, in stark contrast to Old Whales, whose average cost is $31,765. This historical change marks a crucial moment in the Bitcoin market, as the majority of large holders are now those who entered at much higher prices.
From 2015 until the end of 2019, New Whales represented less than 5% of the whale realized cap as Bitcoin's price surged from $200 to $10,000. Their share increased to 25% during the bull run of 2020 to early 2021, driven by retail and institutional investor participation. However, the bear market of 2021-2022 saw New Whale participation plummet to below 10%. A recovery in 2023 and early 2024 saw their share rebound to approximately 20%. Since mid-2024, Bitcoin's price has soared from $30,000 to $100,000, with New Whales' share sharply rising to 52.4% in line with the recent rally.
Interestingly, the realized cap of Old Bitcoin Whales now accounts for only 47.6%. This data suggests that the current strength of Bitcoin is heavily reliant on these new high-cost buyers. If they choose to hold their positions, the upward trend may continue. However, if they start selling around their break-even point, it could lead to increased volatility in the market.
In another notable development, Asset Entities has announced a merger with Strive to launch a Bitcoin treasury company, further signaling institutional interest in Bitcoin. Following this news, shares in the combined entity have risen sharply, reflecting growing investor confidence. Bitcoin's price remains above $96,000, with additional support coming from Metaplanet, which has allocated $25 million in bond proceeds for Bitcoin purchases.
The convergence of these factors—the anticipated actions of central banks, the rise of New Whales, and institutional mergers—paints a promising picture for Bitcoin's future. As the market continues to evolve, investors are keenly watching these developments, which could shape the trajectory of cryptocurrency prices in the coming months.
In summary, the cryptocurrency landscape is witnessing a significant transformation, with Arthur Hayes's predictions and the rise of New Whales indicating a potential bullish phase for Bitcoin. As central banks consider monetary easing and institutional interest grows, the stage is set for possible new all-time highs, making it an exciting time for investors in the crypto space.