The Arctic tundra is undergoing alarming changes as revealed by the recent 2024 Arctic Report Card published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Once regarded as a carbon sink—an ecosystem absorbing more carbon dioxide than it emits—the Arctic tundra has, for the first time, shifted to emitting more carbon than it stores. This transition poses significant risks not just locally, but for global climate change, as the Arctic warms at four times the global average.
According to the report, compiled with input from 97 scientists spanning 11 countries, 2024 marked the second warmest annual surface temperature since 1900. Extreme climatic events, particularly wildfires, have been instrumental contributors to this shift. Daily temperature records crumbled across Alaska and northern Canada during the summer of 2024 heatwave, intensifying what many believe are the long-term effects of climate change.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., stated, “The Arctic tundra, which is experiencing warming and increased wildfire, is now emitting more carbon than it stores, which will worsen climate change impacts.” With the threat of thawing permafrost, centuries of stored carbon—trapped underground—are becoming free to regenerate as carbon dioxide and methane, potent greenhouse gases compounding the climate scenario.
Notably, wildfires have released approximately 207 million tons of carbon annually since 2003. These wildfires not only produce immediate emissions but also intensify the melting of permafrost, creating what scientists describe as feedback loops—a sequence of events where each triggers the next, exacerbated by climate change.
Gerald Frost from Alaska Biological Research commented on the broader system changes, emphasizing, “Many of the Arctic’s vitals are either setting or flirting with record-high or record-low values nearly every year.” This indicates not only variability but extreme shifts attributable to persistent warming trends.
Despite these alarming findings, there is another side to the warming trend: as temperatures rise, the tundra is getting greener. This 'shrubification' process signifies the spread of new plant life across melting ground, though it creates new competitive dynamics. According to Twila Moon, deputy lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Changes happening today have direct influences on populations living far from the region.” This transformation can disrupt established ecological balances, leading to declines, such as the 65% drop found within migrating caribou herds over the past 30 years. This trend raises alarms not only for ecosystems but also for Indigenous communities reliant on the caribou for sustenance.
While the Arctic may display new greenery, researchers fear it could increasingly become another emitter of heat-trapping gases. Susan Natali of the Woodwell Climate Research Center warned, “When we put it all together, what we found is the tundra region has shifted from being a carbon sink, which it has been for thousands of years.” Such change marks one of the tipping points scientists have been cautioning against.
The NOAA's report also reflects on the effects of climate change on local living conditions, with permafrost thaw resulting not only in ecosystem instability but also infrastructure challenges. Homes and buildings above thawing permafrost face risk of instability and collapse.
Interestingly, the Arctic Ocean has largely avoided adverse effects so far. Yet, September 2024 recorded the sixth lowest area of sea ice since satellite measurements began. The loss of ice cover is concerning; it allows more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean instead of being reflected back, warming the waters and adding to the vicious cycles already stirring within the Arctic climate systems.
With the last nine years being the warmest recorded, these findings paint a stark picture. Twila Moon shared the need for adaptation, “This year’s report demonstrates the urgent need for adaptation as climate conditions quickly change. Indigenous Knowledge and community-led research programs can inform successful responses to rapid Arctic changes.” It highlights the necessity for tensions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific research to be bridged to find sustainable solutions.
Calls for action echo throughout the scientific community, with NOAA stressing the urgency of evaluating our past carbon trends to foresee future impacts. The report encapsulates the pressing reality: without significant interventions to curb carbon emissions, the consequences of climate change will resonate throughout ecosystems and societies.
Given these accumulating woes, scientists call on policymakers and society as a whole to recognize climate tipping points and act decisively to leverage strategies against climate breakdown. Adequate measures and the adoption of sustainable practices are not merely environmental choices—they are fundamental to our future as stewards of the planet.
