The icy region at the top of the globe, lashed by wildfire and increasingly heavy precipitation, has tipped over the edge, scientists reported Tuesday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its partner researchers revealed this finding in their 19th annual Arctic Report Card. The report indicates the Arctic tundra has shifted from being a carbon sink to becoming a carbon dioxide source, effectively compromising the Arctic’s ability to help regulate the Earth’s temperature.
Emissions from warming permafrost regions now pose increasing risks to the planet, which is already grappling with the overburden of fossil fuel pollution. “This year’s report paints a clear and urgent picture of the Arctic’s changing conditions,” said NOAA Administrator Richard Spinrad. “We are seeing impacts of warming in real-time in the Arctic, and it’s a call to action.” The final Arctic Report Card released during President Joe Biden’s term arrives at a precarious moment, as NOAA and other U.S. science agencies look toward uncertainty under the incoming administration.
President-elect Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism about climate change, is poised to make significant cuts to federal climate research, including NOAA. This backdrop adds gravity to the report’s findings, which were disclosed during the 24th annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) held this year in Washington, D.C. The theme of this pivotal meeting questioned: “What’s Next for Science?”
This year’s Arctic Report Card details alarming records, consistent with previous reports. Surface air temperatures measured were the second highest since 1900, with summer 2024 recorded as the wettest ever. Other findings included the sixth-lowest sea ice extent and the second-highest tundra greenness over the last 25 years. “The Arctic today looks really different than the Arctic of a couple of decades ago,” said Twila Moon, deputy lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
But perhaps the most noteworthy change documented this year is the transition of the tundra from carbon sink to carbon source. Historically, the tundra has absorbed more carbon than it has released. Warming temperatures have stimulated increased plant productivity, leading to higher carbon uptake, but this benefit has been overwhelmed by carbon releases, particularly from wildfires. According to the report, circumpolar wildfire emissions have averaged 207 million tons of carbon per year since 2003, equivalent to emissions from about 200 coal power plants.
Even against the backdrop of increased greening of the tundra, the net effect remains one where the treeless region has been predominantly carbon-sustaining as opposed to carbon-absorbing over the last 20 years. The warming soils beneath the Arctic’s permafrost hold about twice as much carbon as currently exists in the atmosphere — and approximately three times more than all of the above-ground biomass found globally. Alarmingly, permafrost temperatures at nine out of the 20 long-term monitoring stations across the Arctic reached record highs this year.
Brendan Rogers, co-author of the report’s carbon-cycle chapter from the Woodwell Climate Research Center, cautions, “We’re not expecting all of the permafrost carbon to be released due to climate change. But even if just a small fraction is released, it could be momentous. The permafrost carbon feedback could rival the impact of major global economies.” Serious policy rethinking will be needed to manage these risks, emphasized the report’s authors.
Given this shift, NOAA's mission faces scrutiny amid increasing national debates over climate funding. The United States, as the largest historic contributor of greenhouse gases, is on the verge of abandoning significant targets set by the Biden administration — including plans to cut climate pollution by half from 2005 levels by 2030. Trump has also signaled intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, paired with plans to broadly increase domestic oil and natural gas production.
According to the authors of Project 2025, NOAA faces proposals for substantial cuts to its climate research programs, arguing for the disbandment of most climate-related work within the agency. Past government efforts to implement sweeping cuts on this scale have been met with resistance, underscoring the unpredictable dynamics of future environmental research funding.
Despite these challenges, NOAA Administrator Spinrad remains committed to collaborative efforts addressing climate adaptation and addressing community needs. “It’s responding to what communities, industries, and individuals are saying they need ... Now more than ever, the requirement is higher than ever before.” Observations from long-standing scientists, like NOAA oceanographer James Overland, who helped institute the Arctic Report Card initiative, reinforce the necessity for continued vigilance.
The report’s findings deepen the urgency for regional and global policies to mitigate the rapid climate changes occurring today. The atmosphere does not differentiate between administrations or political agendas. “The atmosphere, the climate, doesn’t really care who the president is,” concluded Rogers. “It’s going to see all of this, and we’re going to feel the effects.”
