The anticipation for the 2025 Red River Rivalry between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners is reaching a fever pitch, but the contest is about more than just a storied football tradition. It’s become a showcase for two young quarterbacks—Arch Manning and John Mateer—whose performances, injuries, and off-field earnings are being scrutinized as never before. With the game set for a 2:30 p.m. Central kickoff on October 11, fans, analysts, and sponsors alike are watching every move, every throw, and, yes, every NIL valuation update.
Arch Manning, quarterback for the Texas Longhorns, has been under an intense microscope since the moment he arrived in Austin. Coming into the 2025 season, the hype was palpable: preseason No. 1 rankings, Heisman whispers, and a staggering $6.8 million NIL valuation, according to Fox Sports. Now, as the Longhorns sit at 3-2 after five games, Manning’s star power remains, but his valuation has dipped to $5 million—a drop of about $563,000 in just ten weeks, per On3’s latest estimates. While that still keeps him atop the NIL charts, the conversation around Manning has shifted from coronation to critique.
Why the scrutiny? Part of it is the surname, as Kirk Bohls, a veteran Texas football reporter, bluntly put it: “I would say it’s unfair only in the realm in that he’s a Manning, and as such, invites more micro-scrutiny than any other college athlete in recent time.” Manning himself tried to downplay the hype at SEC Media Days, remarking, “I’m not sure how they get these opinions, I’ve only played, what, two games? It’s nice of them to say, but it doesn’t mean anything. Talk is cheap, I gotta go prove it.”
Through five games, Manning’s numbers tell a story of both promise and growing pains. Against Ohio State on August 30, he completed 17 of 30 passes for 170 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 14-7 loss. He rebounded with a four-touchdown, 295-yard performance versus San Jose State but showed inconsistency against UTEP (114 yards, one TD, one INT) and Florida (263 yards, two TDs, two INTs, and six sacks). Despite the ups and downs, Bohls sees progress: “That represented progress to most of us who cover Texas because he was under fire. He ran the ball well. He’s their leading rusher after five games with 160 yards. That counts sacks, so it should be a whole lot more than that. He’s got five rushing TDs. Their running backs—and they’ve played five of them—only have three.”
It’s not just about statistics. The Texas offensive line has been battered, losing key starters like Kelvin Banks Jr., Cameron Williams, and Hayden Connor to the NFL. Through five games, the unit has allowed 37 quarterback hurries—more than double last year’s total at this point. “He’s just not comfortable right now,” Bohls noted. “He just seemed so much more relaxed last year, and it probably has a whole lot to do with the supporting cast around him this year.”
With his NIL valuation still leading the pack, Manning’s marketability also reflects the allure of his family legacy. Peyton Manning praised his nephew’s decision to attend Texas: “I’m proud of Arch. He went to Texas because that’s where he wanted to go. He wanted to go to school there. That was the reason I went to Tennessee.” Still, being a Manning comes with relentless expectations. As Bohls summarized, “You put the surname with the ability that everyone agreed on as the No. 1 player in his recruiting class three years ago, that invites scrutiny as well that’s probably deserved. You couple that with the Texas brand, then you basically have a perfect storm for attention and examination.”
The narrative is different but equally compelling for Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Ranked eighth in NIL valuation at $3.2 million—up from $2.7 million in June—Mateer’s star is on the rise, even as he battles adversity. His last NIL deal, with Beats by Dre, came on August 19, and his on-field performance has started to catch up with his off-field value. But Mateer’s season took a dramatic turn on September 20, when he injured his throwing hand in the first quarter against Auburn. Remarkably, he played through the pain, completing 15 of his last 16 passes—including 11 straight—to lead Oklahoma to a 24-17 win. Eddie Radosevich of On3 marveled, “It’s incredible John Mateer finished the Auburn game completing 15 of his last 16 passes, including 11 in a row to end the game with a broken thumb.”
Initially, the prognosis was grim: surgery and a month-long recovery. Head coach Brent Venables explained, “After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future. He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.” Mateer missed the October 4 matchup against Kent State but is now listed as probable for the Red River game. If he can’t go, Michael Hawkins Jr. will get the nod.
The stakes for both quarterbacks are enormous, but so are the expectations. For Manning, every snap is dissected—sometimes harshly—against the backdrop of his family’s legendary NFL pedigree. For Mateer, the conversation is shifting from potential to performance, especially as his NIL valuation climbs and his resilience becomes part of his narrative. Yet, as one columnist observed, “He is still just 21 years old, and for all the privilege he inherited—and all the hype he invited—he deserves time to grow into himself.”
Comparisons to past greats are inevitable. Peyton and Eli Manning were both No. 1 picks who won Super Bowls, but they too faced setbacks in college. Peyton, for instance, struggled against Florida, going 0-4 in his Tennessee career. Even Joe Burrow, now an NFL star, had an uneven first year as a starter at LSU before exploding onto the national scene. The lesson? Growth takes time, even for those with famous last names or eye-popping NIL deals.
As the Red River Rivalry kicks off, all eyes will be on Manning and Mateer—not just for their stats, but for how they handle the scrutiny, the pressure, and the weight of expectations. The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: both quarterbacks are at the center of one of college football’s most compelling stories, and their journeys are far from over.
The Cotton Bowl will be buzzing with anticipation as the Longhorns and Sooners take the field. Whether it’s Manning’s quest to silence the doubters or Mateer’s determination to overcome injury, the Red River Rivalry promises drama, intensity, and perhaps, a glimpse at the future stars of the game. For now, the spotlight shines brightest on two young men still writing their own chapters in this historic rivalry.
