After months of intense battles and strategic maneuvers, the Arakan Army (AA) has emerged as a formidable force against Myanmar's junta, gaining control over significant territories and entrenching its position along the western border with Bangladesh. This has escalated concerns not only within Myanmar but also among its neighbors and international observers as the conflict continues to evolve.
The conflict ignited anew following the military coup in 2021, which saw the democratically elected government ousted, leading to widespread civil unrest and conflict. The AA, having been engaged with the junta over the last eight months, proclaimed its commitment to liberate Arakan State from military control, continuously attacking military positions to assert its dominance.
According to reports, the AA has successfully captured fourteen townships across Rakhine State and parts of Chin State throughout the latter half of 2023, marking significant territorial gains during its offensives. The annexation of strategic towns such as Maungdaw and Ann has drawn attention to the group's tactical capabilities and its persistent efforts to undermine junta forces.
Political analyst U Kyee Myint remarked, "If the AA can capture the military's Western Command, it will be a tremendous victory. It would bolster the liberation efforts across Arakan State." The newfound control over military strongholds has enabled the AA to tighten its grip on the territory, thereby posing serious challenges for junta forces trying to maintain order.
The latest report from December 8 revealed the AA's seizure of the BGP-5 battalion, the last remaining military checkpoint under junta control near Maungdaw. This has effectively placed the AA's operational reach across the entire 270-kilometer Bangladesh-Myanmar border, making it almost entirely inaccessible to military forces. Scenes from the siege indicated fierce fighting, with videos showing heavy gunfire and aerial bombardments as the junta attempted to repel the offensive.
Despite the junta's efforts to reinforce Gwa Town, where troops were moved and artillery units deployed, analysts believe the AA's bold strategies could erase the military's previously established hold on the region. A source from the ground broke down the military's precarious situation, noting, "They’re sending troops from Ayeyarwady Region to Gwa repeatedly, but it seems like they can’t keep up with the onslaught of the AA. They've fortified their positions, but with each assault, the AA draws closer to complete control."
The regime currently retains control of only Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung, with nearby towns under immediate threat of falling to the AA. Observers are cautiously optimistic, predicting full liberation could be within reach should the momentum continue. The AA has stated, "We are committed to pushing forward and are not stopping until Arakan State is completely free from military rule."
For the AA, the stakes have never been higher. Their advance has raised questions about the future treatment of approximately 600,000 Rohingya still residing within the region. Many human rights observers have voiced concerns over how the group will engage with the Rohingya population, especially after the discrimination and violence the Rohingya faced during previous military operations.
Reports from the ground reflect the devastation left behind; one former resident shared, "Eighty percent of the housing has been destroyed. The town is deserted. Almost all shops and houses have been looted." This destruction raises alarms about the war’s impact on civilian populations caught between the two forces, as both sides continue to escalate hostilities.
Further complicate matters, some Rohingya-aligned groups initially sided with the junta but have now found themselves vulnerable thanks to the military's diminishing control. The Arakan Rohingya Army and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army faced direct confrontations with the AA, pushing them out of their positions and leaving them with dwindling options.
Pro-military commentators voiced despair across social media platforms following the fall of the last border outpost, highlighting the AA's growing strength. Even though the AA was formed comparatively later than many rebel groups, since its establishment in 2009, it has rapidly risen to be one of the most powerful insurgents fighting against the junta.
Beyond the immediate military engagements, international observers have expressed concerns about the regional ramifications of the AA's actions. The relationship between the AA and its neighboring countries, especially Bangladesh, requires delicate management as the conflict reshapes the political and social landscapes. The question now is whether the AA can navigate these dynamics responsibly without aggravations to existing tensions.
China has also been proactive amid these developments, urging various ethnic armed groups—like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA)—to cease hostilities with the Myanmar junta and stabilize the region. The aim is to prevent disruptions to major investments and trade routes, which could harm China's interests.
Despite pressing international interests for peace, the AA appears determined to continue its offensive until its objectives are met. The recent military achievements suggest they have both the resolve and capability to forge their path. The winds of conflict continue to blow fiercely across Arakan State, with the AA poised to push its agenda forward. The next few months will be pivotal as both sides prepare for what could be consequential developments on the ground, potentially reshaping the future of Myanmar's turbulent socio-political environment.
