With the wave of excitement surrounding obesity treatments over recent years, Amgen, one of the leading biotech firms, has stepped up to the plate with its latest contender: MariTide. On November 26, 2024, the company revealed results from its mid-stage Phase 2 trial, where MariTide reportedly helped participants with obesity or who are overweight to shed approximately 20% of their body weight over the course of one year. This milestone places MariTide squarely among the ranks of competing medications like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, both of which have already made significant impacts on the obesity drug market.
Despite showing promise, the reception on Wall Street was far from enthusiastic. Following the initial news release, Amgen's stock tumbled by over 10%. Investment analysts had high hopes for MariTide and, unfortunately for the company, the trial results fell slightly short of their expectations, stirring questions about the drug's long-term competitive viability.
The weight loss achieved by MariTide matches well with data from other current market leaders. For example, Wegovy users typically experience around 15% weight loss after 68 weeks, demonstrating MariTide's effective results. Notably, the study also revealed continued weight loss potential beyond the year mark, indicating users may continue to benefit from the treatment.
One major selling point for MariTide is its distinct dosing schedule compared to many of its counterparts. Amgen’s drug is intended for monthly or even less frequent injections, contrasting sharply with the weekly doses required for other drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound. This aspect could position MariTide favorably, especially for those who find more frequent dosing cumbersome.
Dr. James E. Bradner, Amgen’s Chief Scientific Officer, expressed optimism about the therapy, citing its "substantial and progressive weight loss, significant improvements in cardiometabolic parameters, and strong reductions of HbA1C" among participants. These benefits suggest MariTide could offer advantages not just for weight loss, but also for broader health outcome improvements, particularly for those afflicted with Type 2 diabetes.
Nevertheless, the trial witnessed higher drop-out rates due to side effects, approximately 11% of trial participants discontinued, compared to 7% seen with competitor Zepbound. This discrepancy raised red flags, especially for investors eager to see MariTide squeeze its way through the competitive obesity medication market, already dominated by established players.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley foresee the global market for GLP-1 treatments potentially soaring to $105 billion by 2030, reflecting the immense revenue opportunities at stake. Major companies including Pfizer and Viking Therapeutics are also vying for their slice of this lucrative market, hoping to introduce their own effective weight-loss solutions.
"Weight loss of 20% meets the bar, but there is a catch," noted Mohit Bansal of Wells Fargo Securities. With competitors like Zepbound already achieving significant weight loss, any promising data from MariTide will need to substantially distinguish itself, especially as other newer treatments with even higher efficacy rates, such as Cagrisema and Retatrutide, are on the horizon.
Despite the short-term backlash, some analysts believe the market may have overreacted and expect Amgen’s share price to bounce back as the results are digested. Michael Yee from Jefferies noted, "a number of questions remain, but we see a drug providing equivalent weight loss to tirzepatide much faster, with monthly dosing—even if there is this key safety tradeoff."
Moving forward, Amgen is setting the stage for the next phase of development. Plans for Phase 3 trials will involve testing MariTide on patients not just struggling with obesity but also those dealing with comorbidities such as heart disease, sleep apnea, and diabetes. This broader study could potentially validate the drug's efficacy across various populations, securing its position as a front-runner among obesity treatments.
With obesity rates skyrocketing and health systems under pressure to manage associated diseases, the race for the next blockbuster weight loss drug is heating up. MariTide’s success could pivot Amgen from being a key player to the leader within this highly competitive and lucrative market, contingent upon the results of upcoming trials and the corporate responses to the fiercely competitive pharmaceutical environment.
