Alberta is taking bold steps towards a potential referendum on independence as Premier Danielle Smith announces the formation of a new panel to explore the province's future within Canada. During a livestream address on May 5, 2025, Smith outlined her government's plans to engage with Albertans on their grievances against the federal government while also establishing a special negotiating team to confront Ottawa ahead of an anticipated citizen-led vote next year.
Seated before Alberta and Canadian flags, Smith began her 18-minute speech by reciting a series of historical grievances against the federal government, acknowledging that many Albertans feel disillusioned about their province's future as part of Canada. “We are well aware that there is a large and growing number of Albertans that have lost hope in Alberta having a free and prosperous future as a part of Canada,” she stated, highlighting that many citizens are organizing petitions to trigger a referendum.
Last week, Smith's government introduced Bill 54, which aims to reduce the signature threshold required for a citizen initiative and extend the time frame for collecting those signatures from 90 to 120 days. This bill is currently awaiting a second reading, which could occur as soon as May 6, 2025. If passed, this legislation could pave the way for an independence vote as early as next year.
The newly formed panel, dubbed 'Alberta Next', will be chaired by Smith and consist of experts from judicial, academic, and economic backgrounds. The panel is tasked with hosting town halls to discuss potential steps Alberta could take against the federal government. “After the work of the panel is finished, it is likely we will place some of the more popular ideas discussed with the panel to a provincial referendum so that all Albertans can vote on them sometime in 2026,” Smith added, indicating that details about the panel's scope and membership would be announced in the coming weeks.
This initiative is reminiscent of the 'Fair Deal' panel established by former Premier Jason Kenney in 2019, which aimed to explore strategies for securing a fair deal within the Canadian federation. Until the panel's work is completed, Smith confirmed that Alberta will continue negotiations with Ottawa on various demands, including access to tidewater for energy exports, lifting the tanker ban off the B.C. coast, and eliminating the emissions cap.
Smith expressed hope for a binding agreement with the federal government, which she referred to as an 'Alberta accord'. “If these points can be agreed to by the federal government, I’m convinced it will not only make Alberta and Canada an infinitely stronger and more prosperous country, but will eliminate the doubts of a growing number of Albertans,” she remarked.
The announcement comes on the heels of the federal Liberal party's recent re-election, where Prime Minister Mark Carney's party secured two of Alberta’s 37 seats. Smith described her first post-election conversation with Carney as positive but noted that “it’s that the same Liberal government” and emphasized that “Albertans are more of an action speak louder than words kind of people.”
In a separate statement, Smith reiterated her commitment to addressing the grievances of Albertans who feel marginalized by federal policies. She asserted that Alberta has no choice but to take steps to combat what she described as a decade of hostile federal Liberal policies that have undermined the province's oil and gas industry, which is vital to its economy.
Smith's government has faced criticism for its handling of the separatist sentiment in Alberta. Recent polling conducted by Nanos for The Globe and Mail indicates that while discussions of separation are prevalent, a significant majority of Albertans—64 percent—believe the province would be better off as part of Canada. This survey, which included 432 respondents, is considered accurate to within 4.8 percentage points.
Despite this, Smith remains focused on her agenda. She has committed to negotiating an end to federal policies that she claims have adversely affected Alberta's economy while also hosting town halls to gather input from citizens. “Some of those ideas may also find their way into referendum questions,” she noted, emphasizing the need for a government that listens to its constituents.
In her address, Smith highlighted the importance of addressing the energy sector's concerns, particularly regarding federal emissions regulations and clean electricity mandates. She has long criticized the Liberal government, specifically targeting former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, for policies that she argues have harmed Alberta's economic interests.
Smith's approach to Alberta's relationship with Ottawa has been marked by a commitment to independence and self-determination. She has expressed a desire for a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, recognizing that the voices of those unhappy with Confederation are not fringe extremists but rather a significant portion of the population that must be acknowledged.
The Premier's recent initiatives have sparked a renewed dialogue about Alberta's future and its place within Canada. As the province prepares for potential referendums and further negotiations with Ottawa, the outcome remains uncertain. Smith's government aims to channel the growing sentiment for independence into a constructive dialogue that could reshape Alberta's political landscape.
As the political climate evolves, Smith is set to address reporters on May 6, 2025, where she is expected to provide further insights into her government's plans and the ongoing negotiations with the federal government. The coming weeks will be crucial for Alberta as it navigates its relationship with Ottawa and considers its future within the Canadian federation.
